Analysis: Frank Nazar’s extension may be worth the bet

While surprising, this isn’t the first time Davidson has put his chips on a player with a thin resume. In April of 2024, The Blackhawks signed then-22-year-old Alex Vlasic to a six-year, $27.6 million contract with an annual cap hit of $4.6 million. It did feel less gasp-worthy than the Nazar deal, as Vlasic had completed his first full season in Chicago, but looking back on it now, what a deal!   

With the Vlasic and now the Nazar contracts, and the idea of paying players for what they will do versus potentially overpaying them for past performance, Davidson may have saved the Blackhawks millions of dollars and opened up the door for future cap flexibility. If the choice was made to wait, should Nazar have a 25-plus-goal season in 2025-26, which is not unrealistic in the least, the Hawks would have to pay the 22-year-old more handsomely with potentially a higher cap hit of $2-3 million more annually.

There is also the possibility of playing hardball with an RFA in that scenario, going late into the summer going back and forth with an agent, trying to figure out terms and an accurate number to get him re-signed. Sure, you can do it that way, but that sounds like a lousy way to reward and negotiate with a young player who is part of your plans and whom you want to be on the same page with. There is also plenty of proof league-wide, that late-summer negotiations with restricted free agents could play more in the hands of the player rather than the organization, ultimately creating potential rifts or harm to the beginning of a season. An example? Ask the Boston Bruins how this went with Jeremy Swayman at the start of the 2024-25 when they had Stanley Cup dreams, and what became of their campaign.

And okay, this is looking at it from a worst-case scenario lens, but if Nazar does hit that goal tally or higher, builds on that in future seasons, possibly being a 70-plus-point-per-season player through the length of the contract, to have that player at $6.9 million through 2032-33 is a bargain if there ever was one. We are already seeing dividends of the Vlasic investment and there are five seasons remaining at his current price point. Now at 24, it is easy to see Vlasic as a top-four stalwart of the future, and both he and Nazar will be competing for an Olympic roster spot for the United States for the 2026 Olympic Games.   

If you are Davidson and you believe in the players you are developing, then what is wrong with the message of, “We believe in you, here’s how much we believe in you, now go get it!”? If you are looking to develop a loyal culture where you appeal to your current young players and demonstrate that through compensation, might that be an attractive philosophy to lure marquee free agents in the future while keeping your core intact? Of course it would. 

What Davidson did with Nazar Thursday and with Vlasic a little over a year ago is in some way unconventional, but it may be exactly the best way to go about business with his young talent. Risky, yes, but there is inherent risk no matter when you re-sign an important asset. Should Nazar have a healthy and productive 2025-26 season, this contract will be dynamite as early as next April. And who may be next up, Connor Bedard, Spencer Knight, we will see. The reality is, if you believe in your rebuild and want to commit to the process, then put your money where your mouth is. Kyle Davidson did that this week and his plans for the team may end up being better for it.