Assessing the curious case of Matt Grzelcyk

It’s not as though Grzelcyk lacks upside; he can operate on the second power-play unit, handles the puck well, and is quite active in transition. He averaged a career-high 20:37 per game, which should have boosted his stock this summer, along with his offensive output. So, why hasn’t Grzelcyk signed?

Grzelcyk’s stats are probably inflated because he was often paired with Erik Karlsson, and despite Karlsson’s flaws, he has a track record of making his teammates better, significantly better. Sure, Grzelcyk has a history of posting solid underlying numbers, but he didn’t show that last year, even though he spent a lot of time with Karlsson. His possession numbers weren’t significant in Pittsburgh, and in the years before his move there, many of Grzelcyk’s numbers were starting to decline, as shown by data from Top Down Hockey.

Numerous other significant issues are working against Grzelcyk. He is undersized, over 30, and there seems to be a trend among NHL general managers to move away from smaller defensemen, following the successful Florida Panthers model.

Grzelcyk specifically struggled during the playoffs and was a healthy scratch for the Boston Bruins on several occasions. Any team in its competitive window would be concerned about Grzelcyk’s poor playoff performance and likely deterred by his age and size.

Also, regarding Grzelcyk’s play, he is most effective on the power play (with 15 points last season), but he isn’t quite at the level to secure a spot on a top power-play unit. Most teams aren’t interested in bringing in a depth defenseman to run the second power-play unit.

That said, some teams might consider it, but most top NHL teams already have multiple defenseman who can do this role, or they might deploy four forwards on their power plays. Grzelcyk clearly provides value on the power play, but that role is probably better suited to a weaker team. Those teams usually aren’t in the market for an undersized defenseman who doesn’t excel defensively and is over 30.

Grzelcyk’s move through free agency might surprise some, but it feels like the signs were there well before July 1. The Penguins signed Grzelcyk last summer, and it seemed they were aiming to trade him at the NHL Trade Deadline for future assets.

After all, they did the same with Cody Glass and Anthony Beauvillier, but for some reason, Pittsburgh couldn’t pull the trigger on a trade for Grzelcyk. Maybe the Penguins didn’t want to move him, or perhaps they couldn’t get the fair value they deemed appropriate, but, strangely, a team with no playoff hopes and no reason to keep Grzelcyk past the deadline chose not to move him.

Finally, we come to Grzelcyk and what he was seeking this summer. No doubt, he was aiming for a raise from the $2.75M he earned last season and was likely eyeing that three-year deal outlets projected for him.

However, the market never materialized for Grzelcyk, leaving him without a seat as the music nears its end. This isn’t the first time a player’s perceived value exceeds the market—it has happened many times across professional sports, including with former Penguins players like Evan Rodrigues in 2022, who had to wait until nearly mid-September to sign a one-year deal with Colorado after reportedly turning down better offers earlier in the summer.

Regardless of the reason for Grzelcyk’s current situation, one thing is likely clear: he will need to sign another one-year deal for the next season if he wants to stay in the NHL. A team could benefit from him if they put him in the proper role.

It’s unlikely to be Pittsburgh again, since they have around 14 defensemen of different skill levels who could play in the NHL this season. However, many other teams still need a puck-moving defenseman who can contribute at a low cost. Grzelcyk could fill that role, although he’s probably not joining a top contender given his limited playoff success.