Big 12 vs. Big Ten: Which Proposed CFP Format Helps Iowa State Most?

The Iowa State Cyclones were right on the cusp of making the expanded College Football Playoff in 2024. While there’s solace in the fact that all the Cyclones have to do is win the Big 12 and they’re in, future potential changes could reshape their path to the postseason going forward.

Discussions are ongoing among the suits that manage the world of college football. The Big Ten and the SEC are hell bent on making sure as many teams from their conferences as possible are ensured a spot in the postseason, while the ACC, Big 12, and the rest of the college football world can just hope they don’t outright ruin their opportunities to participate.

No matter what changes may come, the Cyclones' situation remains - win the Big 12 and you’re in. However, the proposed changes that are up for consideration could provide routes to the playoffs without winning the conference outright.

The Big Ten is in favor of a 4-4-2-2-1-3 model: four bids each to the SEC and Big Ten, two each to the ACC and Big 12, one to the Group of 5, and three at-large teams. The SEC was reportedly leaning this way, but has since backed off. The ACC and Big 12 are in favor of a 5+11 model: five conference champions and 11 at-large teams.

There’s something to like about both proposals for the Cyclones. The Big Ten’s model could ensure that both teams that reach the Big 12 championship would be guaranteed a spot in the CFP, which would feature 16 total teams. That could refute the need for a Big 12 Championship game, though.

The ACC and Big 12’s model would theoretically make the field an open competition. Avoiding automatic bids sounds like it would be in the best interest of these conferences, but it could be shortsighted. After all, if there are 11 spots up for grabs, most of those spots are going to the Big Ten and the SEC anyway.

Power Grab or Fair Fight? Breaking Down the Two Proposals

Here’s how the 2024 playoff would have looked under each proposed format.

Big Ten’s proposal:

• Big Ten automatic bids - 1. Oregon, 4. Penn State, 6. Ohio State, 8. Indiana
• SEC automatic bids - 2. Georgia, 3. Texas, 7. Tennessee, 11. Alabama
• ACC automatic bids - 16. Clemson, 10. SMU
• Big 12 automatic bids - 12. Arizona State, 17. BYU or 18. Iowa State
• Group of 5 automatic bid - 9. Boise State
• Three at-large bids - 5. Notre Dame, 13. Miami, 14. Ole Miss

ACC and Big 12’s proposal:

• Conference Champions - 1. Oregon, 2. Georgia, 9. Boise State, 12. Arizona State, 16. Clemson
• 11 At-large bids - 3. Texas, 4. Penn State, 5. Notre Dame, 6. Ohio State, 7. Tennessee, 8. Indiana, 10. SMU, 11. Alabama, 12. Miami, 14. Ole Miss, 15. South Carolina

Whether or not BYU or Iowa State would make the Big Ten’s proposed playoff is unclear. Iowa State lost the Big 12 Championship 45-19 and was ranked below BYU in the final CFP rankings before the playoffs began. However, BYU lost two of its final three games by a total of eight points to miss a trip to the conference championship.

Why Iowa State Might Benefit From the Big Ten’s Proposal

Presumably, BYU’s ranking would hold, but that ranking was also made with the foreknowledge by the CFP committee that neither team would be in the playoffs anyway. Simply put, it’s an arbitrary ranking that ultimately didn’t matter. That would change under the Big Ten’s format.

However, in the ACC and Big 12’s proposal, BYU and Iowa State’s ranking remains arbitrary, as neither would be considered ahead of South Carolina, which would not make it to the playoffs in the Big Ten’s proposal.

Understandably, the ACC and Big 12 don’t want to seem limited to just two spots in the playoffs. With rosters balancing and parity becoming more apparent thanks to the (admittedly unbridled) evolutions of college football, the ACC and Big 12 can feasibly offer up three or four teams periodically going forward. With just three at-large bids, it would still be difficult for any ACC or Big 12 school to match a Big Ten or SEC school’s strength of schedule and Top 25 performances.

For what it’s worth, the SEC isn’t committed to the Big Ten’s proposal. The Big 12 and ACC have pitched their 5+11 model to SEC commissioner Greg Sankey, and while he isn’t a fan of it (or how the ACC and Big 12 are fighting back) either, the 5+11 model has a chance if Sankey doesn’t team up with the Big Ten.

Still, 11 at-large bids open the door for teams in the Big Ten and SEC that let one or two games get away from them, with teams like Alabama and Ole Miss serving as prime examples. Despite winning only nine games against Iowa State and BYU’s 10, both SEC teams would make the playoffs under either format, but in only one does it outright disqualify Iowa State and BYU.

At the end of the day, for a program like Iowa State, it’s actually in their best interest to be in a conference with two guaranteed spots with the potential for a third rather than one with the slight potential of a second. The Big 12 and ACC aren’t going to get more automatic bids; the Big Ten and SEC simply aren’t going to allow it.

It may not seem like it at first glance because of the somewhat blatant power grab by the two super conferences, but the Big Ten’s proposal is, to a degree, the better outcome for Iowa State to not only reach the College Football Playoff for the first time, but to reach the postseason somewhat consistently in the future.