Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: The SMU Mustangs.

College Football Bowl Projections Week 15: Brett McMurphy’s Picks & College Football Playoff Predictions

Originally posted on Action Network | By Brett McMurphy | Last updated Dec 2, 2024 9:56 AM ET

By this time next week, all of the College Football Playoff and bowl pairings will be officially announced. But, until then, here are my latest projections. I’ll provide another update later in the week.

Remarkably, there are exactly 82 bowl-eligible teams for 82 spots, so no team will be left behind. My College Football Playoff projections and bowl projections are based on these teams winning their respective conference championships: Oregon (Big Ten), Texas (SEC), SMU (ACC), Arizona State (Big 12) and UNLV (Mountain West).

If those teams all win, then 11 of the 12 teams should be locked in: Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State and Penn State (Big Ten); Texas, Georgia and Tennessee (SEC); SMU (ACC); Arizona State (Big 12); UNLV (highest-ranked Group of Five champion) and independent Notre Dame.

That leaves one at-large spot. Ultimately, I believe the committee will take 9-3 Alabama over 10-2 Miami and 9-3 South Carolina because the Tide have played a much tougher schedule and have more Top 25 wins than Miami. Plus, they own the head-to-head tiebreaker edge over South Carolina.

Here are my Week 15 bowl projections, including the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.

Also, click on the link to download the free Action Network app. It’s the perfect place to check scores, track bets, and read analysis and news.

The must-have app for college football bettors

The best NCAAF betting scoreboard
Free picks from proven pros
Live win probabilities for your bets

Projected College Football Playoff Field

*Conference champions projected to receive automatic bids

Oregon*

Big Ten 2

Texas*

SEC 3

SMU*

ACC 4

Arizona State*

Big 12 5

Notre Dame

Independent 6

Penn State

Big Ten

Georgia

SEC 8

Ohio State

Big Ten 9

Tennessee

SEC 10

Indiana

Big Ten 11

Alabama

SEC 12

UNLV*

MWC

In my projected College Football Playoff field, I have Oregon coming in as the top overall seed as the Big Ten champion, followed by Texas as the SEC champion, SMU as the ACC champion and Arizona State as the Big 12 champion.

My No. 12 seed is the highest-ranked remaining conference champion, the UNLV Rebels, out of the Mountain West. I have the Sun Devils ranked ahead of the Rebels, giving them the No. 4 seed over UNLV.

In my projected field, the Big Ten (Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana) and SEC (Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama) each get three at-large selections and the ACC gets one (SMU). No other conference has an at-large selection in my projections

Independent Notre Dame also cracked the field as my No. 5 seed.