End of Regular Season NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection, Bubble Watch

Last Call Before the Conference Tournaments: CFN's NCAA Bracket Projections and Bubble Watch

Teams with a * won their conference tournaments and will get the automatic bid

Projected First Four Out

Cal (ACC)
Indiana (Big Ten)
New Mexico (Mountain West)
Seton Hall (Big East)

Projected Last Four In

These four will probably be knocked out once the conference tournament weirdness kicks in.

Auburn (SEC)
VCU (Atlantic 10)
Santa Clara (West Coast)
SMU (ACC)

Four Teams That Might Screw Everyone Up

Projected-out teams that could steal bids with a splashy conference tournament run.

Arizona State (Big 12) 
Boise State (Mountain West)
Colorado State (Mountain West)
Florida State (ACC)

True Bubble Teams

These four are probably closer to being in than we have them.

Baylor (Big 12) 
Oklahoma (SEC)
San Diego State (Mountain West)
Stanford (ACC)

All teams projected from 12 to 16 should be automatic qualifiers after winning their respective conference tournaments.

Projected 16 Seeds

LIU (NEC) (16)
UMBC (America East) (Out)

Teams in Play-In Games
Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (16)
Howard (MEAC) (16)
Merrimack (MAAC) (16)
Tennessee State (Ohio Valley) 

Projected 15 Seeds

Portland State (Big Sky) (Out)
Queens University* (ASUN) (Out)
Robert Morris (Horizon) (14)
Troy (Sun Belt) (15)

Projected 14 Seeds

ETSU (SoCon) (14)
Navy (Patriot) (15)
North Dakota State (Summit) (14)
UC Irvine (Big West) (14)

Projected 13 Seeds

Liberty (CUSA (13)
Stephen F. Austin (Southland) (13)
UNC Wilmington (Coastal) (13)
Utah Valley (WAC) (13)

Projected 12 Seeds

High Point* (Big South) (12)
Miami University (MAC )(10)
Northern Iowa* (Missouri Valley) (12)
VCU (Atlantic 10) (Bubble Out)

Projected 11 Seeds

Auburn (SEC) (11)
SMU (ACC) (11)

Teams in Play-In Games
Saint Louis (Atlantic 10) (9)
Santa Clara (West Coast) (11)
USF (American) (12)
Yale (Ivy) (12)

Yale will earn its way in, and the same might go for Saint Louis and USF. The other three won't sleep well on Saturday night.

Projected 10 Seeds

Texas (SEC) (10)
Texas A&M (SEC) (11)
UCF (Big 12) (8)
UCLA (Big Ten) (Bubble Out)

This might be a spot low for Texas A&M, and UCF is playing well. Texas and UCLA just want to get into the building.

Projected 9 Seeds

Iowa (Big Ten) (8)
Missouri (SEC) (9)
NC State (ACC) (8)
Ohio State (Big Ten) (11)

All four of these teams would take the 9 in a heartbeat, but the 8 is a shot for all of them.

Projected 8 Seeds

Clemson (ACC) (9)
Kentucky (SEC) (5)
TCU (Big 12) (10)
Utah State (Mountain West) (7)

This is about as high as Clemson or TCU will get without winning their respective conference titles, but Kentucky and Utah State have the potential to get to the 6.

Projected 7 Seeds

BYU (Big 12) (6)
Georgia (SEC) (9)
Louisville (ACC) (6)
Miami (ACC) (7)

A catch-all of the overseeded (BYU, Miami) and underseeded (Georgia, Louisville). 

Projected 6 Seeds

North Carolina (ACC) (7)
Saint Mary’s (West Coast) (6)
Villanova (Big East) (7)
Wisconsin (Big Ten) (8)

This is about as high as any of these teams can go without winning a conference tournament, or at least getting to the final.

Projected 5 Seeds

St. John’s (Big East) (5)
Tennessee (SEC) (5)
Texas Tech (Big 12) (4)
Vanderbilt (SEC) (5)

Any or all of these four could be as low as the 6, or could move up to 4.

Projected 4 Seeds

Alabama (SEC) (4)
Arkansas (SEC) (6)
Gonzaga (West Coast) (4)
Kansas (Big 12) (4)

All four of these spots might be rented for the moment. All four need to show up large over the next week.

Projected 3 Seeds

Iowa State (Big 12) (3)
Nebraska (Big Ten) (3)
Purdue (Big Ten) (2)
Virginia (ACC) (3)

Purdue needs to make some noise in the Big Ten Tournament to get this, or else it's a 4. Everyone else should be locked in.

Projected 2 Seeds

Houston (Big 12) (2)
Illinois (Big Ten) (2)
Michigan State (Big Ten) (3)
UConn (Big East) (1)

Florida has been too good, UConn has been too flaky, and there's the seed swap. The other three should be all but locked in.

Projected 1 Seeds

Arizona (Big 12) (1)
Duke (ACC) (1)
Florida (SEC) (2)
Michigan (Big Ten) (1) 

These four should rest their starters and gear up for what should be a long three weeks. (Of course, they won't do that.)