ESPN computer reveals new Big Ten title favorite over Ohio State

Ohio State may be the big favorite to win the Big Ten and make a run for college football’s national title, but ESPN’s updated computer prediction model begs to differ.

Despite being the No. 1 team in college football with arguably the nation’s most important win, the reigning national champion Buckeyes are no longer listed as the favorite to win the Big Ten title, according to the Football Power Index metrics.

That honor now belongs to Oregon, the reigning Big Ten champion, which is now listed as the leader in the conference with a 34.3 percent chance to repeat this season.

Ohio State isn’t far behind, ranking second behind the Ducks with a 29.9 percent chance to win the Big Ten championship.

Oregon also edged out the Buckeyes in the national championship projections, now leading the country with an 18.3 percent shot to lift the trophy, while Ohio State remains in second place nationally with a 15.4 percent shot to repeat.

1. Oregon, 18.3%
2. Ohio State, 15.4%
3. Texas, 11.2%
4. Georgia, 8.3%
5. Ole Miss, 7.3%
6. USC, 7.0%
7. Alabama, 6.9%
8. Penn State, 5.7%
9. Tennessee, 5.5%
10. Auburn, 1.5%

Oregon was a big mover in the ESPN computer’s 136-team college football rankings this week, jumping 6 spots into the No. 1 position nationally, ahead of former No. 1 Texas.

Ohio State stayed put at No. 3, behind the Longhorns team it beat, but still leads on the index with a national-best 10.8 win projection this season.

So, why the Ducks over the Bucks? It has to do with what the Football Power Index, long one of college football’s more controversial metrics, is meant to do.

Unlike most other power rankings, the ESPN models don’t simply rank teams in terms of results like most other polls, but bases its positioning on future projections.

The computer system uses data points from all teams and then simulates their games 20,000 times in order to generate a projection for how they fare against average opponents.

It then ranks those teams based on how many points they’re projected to be better by, and in this case Oregon comes out on top nationally by that metric.

Not exactly surprising, given the Ducks’ outsized margins of victory so far this year.

Oregon’s two dominant showings are the most influential data set the index uses to put them at No. 1, beating Montana State in a 59-13 rout and then smashing Oklahoma State in a 69-3 decision.

That’s good for a plus-112 point differential this year, and an average of plus-56 scoring margin per game, by far the highest total of any college football this young season.

Not far behind the Ducks is USC, which wasn’t ranked in any of the conventional polls, but came in at No. 5 nationally according to the Football Power Index.

Southern Cal’s dominant wins play a role in that ranking, beating Missouri State by 60 points and then Georgia Southern by 39, placing third nationally behind Oregon with a plus-49.5 point scoring margin.

Ohio State demolished Grambling by a 70-0 count in Week 2, but narrowly defeated No. 1 Texas by seven, placing 12th in college football with a plus-38.5 point scoring margin.

But those are just numbers, and while these particular numbers tell the biggest story when being fed into ESPN’s computers, they don’t tell the whole story when the selection committee will meet later this year.

The money is still on the Buckeyes, who lead the way both to win the Big Ten title at +185 odds, and to win the national championship, at +550, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

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