First Release Of ESPN's FPI Gives Virginia Tech Football Surprisingly High Preseason Ranking

The 2025 college football season is less than three months away and Virginia Tech is one of the bigger question marks in the ACC and around the country. After being lauded as a potential ACC and CFP playoff dark horse heading into last season, the Hokies are not being talked about in the same light heading into 2025. Not only did Virginia Tech have five of their best players from the 2024 roster selected in the NFL Draft, but Virginia Tech had some of their better players leave in the transfer portal as well. Between the roster churn and the fact that Virginia Tech has two brand new coordinators, there is not a lot of optimism heading into Brent Pry's fourth season in Blacksburg.

ESPN's FPI apparently did not get the memo though. One of the most prominent power rating systems in college football is FPI and they have the Hokies as the No. 26 team in the country and No. 4 team in the ACC heading into the 2025 season, which is a surprise if you have been following any post-spring power rankings in the ACC. Virginia Tech has an FPI rating of 9.2 and a projected record of 8-4, which would be the best record of Pry's tenure with the program. FPI gives Virginia Tech an 89% chance to win six games, a 7.3% chance to win the ACC, and a 12.5% chance to make the college football playoff.

ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Here is how FPI sees the ACC in the first release:

1. Miami (No. 9 overall)

2. Clemson (No. 11)

3. SMU (No. 20)

4. Virginia Tech (No.26)

5. Georgia Tech (No. 28)

6. Louisville (No. 41)

7. Florida State (No. 48)

8. Boston College (No. 50)

9. North Carolina (No. 51)

10. Duke (No. 54)

11. NC State (No. 57)

12. Pittsburgh (No. 58)

13. California (No. 60)

14. Syracuse (No. 62)

15. Virginia (No. 63)

16. Stanford (No. 64)

17. Wake Forest (No. 89)

Here is how Virginia Tech's 2025 schedule looks from an FPI perspective:

Aug. 31st- South Carolina (No. 15 Overall)

Sept. 6th- Vanderbilt (No. 56)

Sept. 13th- Old Dominion (No. 97)

Sept. 27th- NC State (No. 57)

Oct. 4th- Wake Forest (No. 89)

Oct. 11th- Georgia Tech (No. 28)

Oct. 24th- California (No. 60)

Nov. 1st- Louisville (No. 41)

Nov. 15th- Florida State (No. 48)

Nov. 22nd- Miami (9th)

Nov. 29th- Virginia (63rd)

If FPI is correct, this is a very favorable schedule for the Hokies and they are only ranked below two teams they play this season, South Carolina and Miami. FPI has the Hokies 20 spots higher than Bill Connelly's SP+ and seems to be much higher on this team heading into the season than anyone else. Only time will tell who is right and who is wrong.

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