FPI Predicts BYU vs Colorado, Updates BYU's Projected Win Total

After taking care of business in non-conference play, BYU moves on to the games that really matter: conference play. The Cougars kickoff their conference slate on Saturday night with a road game at Colorado. ESPN FPI cemented its prediction for BYU-Colorado and updated BYU's projected win total for the 2025 season.

ESPN FPI gives BYU a 77.3% chance to go on the road and beat the Buffaloes.

FPI Predicts Remainder of 2025 BYU Schedule

In the preseason, FPI projected BYU to win 8.5 games. Now, FPI projects BYU to go 9.4-2.6. Below are the game-by-game predictions. BYU is favored in nearly every remaining game except Texas Tech which would be considered a "toss-up".

• Colorado - 77.3% (Up from 61.9% in the preseason)
• West Virginia - 92.6% (Up from 81.5%)
• Arizona - 67.7% (Down from 73.1%)
• Utah - 71.0% (Up from (70.0%)
• Iowa State - 60.5% (Up from 47.1%)
• Texas Tech - 49.9% (Down from 55.7%)
• TCU - 67.1% (Down from 68.1%)
• Cincinnati - 68.1% (Up from 60.5%)
• UCF - 82.1% (Up from 72.7%)

BYU's outlook for every game was upgraded after beating the Pirates by three scores. Most notably, BYU's chances to beat rival Utah skyrocketed from 54% to 71% after BYU took care of business and the Utes got stomped by Texas Tech.

Odds of a Special Season

For the purposes of this article, we'll define a "special season" as 10 or more regular season wins. Winning 10 games would put BYU in contention for the Big 12 championship and potentially a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. FPI gives BYU a 47.8% chance to win 10 games or more - up from 29.1% last week - and a 3.9% chance to go undefeated.

6 wins or more - 99.7%
7 wins or more - 98.2%
8 wins or more - 91.8%
9 wins or more - 75.1%
10 wins or more - 47.8%
11 wins or more - 19.8%
12 wins (undefeated) - 3.9%

FPI Rankings

BYU jumped up to no. 18 in the FPI rankings after the win over ECU. The Cougars are now the highest-ranked team in the Big 12.

• BYU - 18
• Texas Tech - 20
• TCU - 26
• Kansas - 27
• Utah - 28
• Arizona State - 29
• Iowa State - 35
• Arizona - 41
• UCF - 42
• Baylor - 45
• Cincinnati - 46
• Houston - 47
• Kansas State - 49
• Colorado - 54
• West Virginia - 72
• Oklahoma State - 104

Conference Title Hopes

In terms of conference title hopes, Texas Tech now leads the way after a convincing win over Utah. BYU is second in line behind the Red Raiders. Here are the teams with the best chances to win the conference according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 29.3%
• BYU - 24.7%
• TCU - 12.5%
• Kansas - 10.1%
• Arizona State - 7.8%
• Iowa State - 4.8%
• Utah - 2.4%
• Arizona - 2.1%
• Houston - 2.1%
• Cincinnati - 1.4%
• UCF - 1.3%

BYU and Texas Tech are the only three teams with more than a 20% chance to win the league according to FPI.

College Football Playoff Hopes

BYU has a 31.3% chance to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI. That's the second best odds in the conference. Here are the Big 12 teams with the best odds to make the College Football Playoff according to FPI.

• Texas Tech - 33.0%
• BYU - 31.3%
• TCU - 17.5%
• Kansas - 10.5%
• Arizona State - 7.7%
• Iowa State - 6.7%
• Utah - 3.0%
• Arizona - 2.9%
• Houston - 2.4%
• UCF - 2.1%
• Cincinnati - 1.3%

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