Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell during the second quarter against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Iowa State Cyclones Have Near Impossible Odds to Make CFP Following Loss

Originally posted on Iowa State Cyclones on SI
By Nick Ziegler | Last updated Oct 12, 2025 8:00 PM ET

Despite being a favorite on the road, the Iowa State Cyclones were unable to come away with a win against the Colorado Buffaloes. This was a game that the Cyclones needed to have, but they suffered their second straight loss.

In the game, it was another disappointing performance by their defense, who allowed numerous big plays. Due to the multiple key injuries to their secondary, it seems like the defense is going to be a major problem for the team the rest of the season.

With the loss, Iowa State has moved to 5-2 overall on the year and 2-2 in the conference. The conference record is a genuine concern at this stage of the campaign. This was a program that was hoping to win the conference, but that seems highly unlikely at this point.

Due to the Big 12 not receiving a lot of respect nationally, it has felt like for most of the year so far that this could be just a one-team conference come playoff time. With that being said, things aren’t looking good for the Cyclones now.

Austin Mock of The Athletic (subscription required) recently wrote about what the College Football Playoff bracket might look like and how the Cyclones’ chances were after their loss to the Buffaloes. Unfortunately, it appears like it will be an impossible task.

Iowa State Has Less Than One Percent Chance to Make CFP

Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With two losses, both to non-ranked opponents in the conference, it is certainly understandable that the Cyclones have less than a one percent chance of making the CFP. Winning the conference felt like it was going to be the most logical way for them to accomplish this, but that is a longshot now as well.

Iowa State will be on their bye week now, but when they come back things will be challenging, but also present them with some opportunities. The next stretch coming up could help turn things around, but the Cyclones will need to be perfect.

Following the bye week, they will have home games against the BYU Cougars and Arizona State Sun Devils. After those two games at home, it will be on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs. If Iowa State is going to make a run at the CFP and or the Big 12 conference title, they will need to be perfect the rest of the way.

There are some opportunities coming up against quality opponents that could help the resume, but they have dug themselves into a tough hole. Even if they run the table, there is no guarantee they will have enough to make it.

This article first appeared on Iowa State Cyclones on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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