Sep 7, 2024; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; An Iowa State Cyclones helmet sits on the sidelines before the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

Iowa State Cyclones See Chances of Winning Big 12 Drop After Bye Week

Originally posted on Iowa State Cyclones on SI
By Nick Ziegler | Last updated Sep 22, 2025 5:00 PM ET

With Week 4 of the college football season coming to a close, the Iowa State Cyclones were able to get some rest during their first bye week of the year. The Cyclones came into the bye week undefeated with a perfect 4-0 record and have played very well so far this campaign.

While on their bye week, Iowa State did see some movement around them in the AP Top 25 poll. The Cyclones are now the 14th team in the country, with a few teams behind them getting signature wins and being able to jump them.

It is no secret that Iowa State is hoping to be one of the best teams in the country and make the College Football Playoff. Due to their schedule and the reputation of the Big 12 currently, this could very well be a one-team conference in the CFP. If that ends up being the case, the goal for the Cyclones is going to be pretty simple.

While it is still very early in the season, Iowa State has positioned themselves well to be able to win the conference. Currently, they figure to be one of the favorites to win it. The Athletic (subscription required) recently projected that the Cyclones would have a 21 percent chance of winning the Big 12. Which, despite them being on a bye week, is a slight drop from last week.

Why the Drop

Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Despite not playing, it was unsettling to see that Iowa State’s chances of winning the Big 12 go down slightly. That was largely due to the outcome of the Texas Tech Red Raiders’ win against the Utah Utes.

While it is good that the Cyclones’ chances didn't decrease dramatically, last week they had the highest chances of winning the conference. That is no longer the case for Iowa State, with the Red Raiders jumping ahead of them.

Beating a Top 25 ranked team on the road is a big deal and Texas Tech is now the team to beat in the Big 12. Even though the Red Raiders have some serious momentum, Iowa State is still undefeated and can get right back on track with a win against the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night.

The Cyclones might have some stiff competition in the Big 12 with the emergence of the Red Raiders as a real threat. However, there are still plenty of conference games to be played and Iowa State must be focused on winning these games.