Nov 9, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Iowa State Cyclones helmets on the bench during the first quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. William Purnell-Imagn Images

Iowa State Cyclones See Significant Drop in Chances to Make CFP After Bye Week

Originally posted on Iowa State Cyclones on SI
By Nick Ziegler | Last updated Sep 23, 2025 7:00 AM ET

The Iowa State Cyclones are preparing for the Arizona Wildcats in Week 5, and both teams should be fresh coming off their bye weeks. Furthermore, this will also be a matchup of two undefeated teams in the Big 12, making it an important game for the standings.

For the Cyclones, they have been considered to be one of the top teams in the conference since the start of the year, and they still have a lot to prove. Despite two good wins against the Kansas State Wildcats and the Iowa Hawkeyes, a lot of that momentum was erased when they barely beat the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Even though that game was a prime letdown spot for multiple reasons, it has seemingly hurt their resume a bit.

Since Iowa State was on their bye, they were unable to help their resume and saw some teams pass them in the most recent AP Poll. One of those teams was the Texas Tech Red Raiders. With an impressive road victory against the Utah Utes, the Red Raiders were able to become the new team to beat in the conference. As the top team in the conference, that now comes with a higher probability of making the College Football Playoff.

The Athletic (subscription required) recently released a projection that the Cyclones have a 32 percent chance of making the CFP, which is a significant drop from 45 percent last week.

Why the Decrease?

Even though they didn’t lose and didn’t play, it was a significant drop for Iowa State. They had to be feeling much better about their chances after last week, with a 45 percent being a much higher probability for them.

The significant drop is in direct correlation with Texas Tech’s chances greatly improving due to their win. It is now the Red Raiders who have the best chance in the conference to make the CFP, and currently, they are the only team from the Big 12 projected to be in.

As conference play heats up in the Big 12, it will be interesting to see how they are viewed. Currently, the conference hasn’t been getting a lot of respect around the country, but that can change with some teams in the Top 25.

For the Cyclones, they can instantly improve their chances to make the CFP with a win over the Wildcats in Week 5. Even though Arizona is undefeated as well, they aren't currently ranked. However, this could be a nice win for Iowa State in the conference and continue to help them build their resume.