Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Joel Klatt predicts a close matchup for Tennessee-Alabama in Week 8

Originally posted on CFB-HQ on SI | By Patrick Previty | Last updated Oct 17, 2025 3:58 AM ET

FOX Sports analyst Joel Klatt expects a tight one in Tuscaloosa, taking Alabama to win while Tennessee covers the spread. “Another giant one in the SEC, Tennessee at Alabama," Klatt said on The Joel Klatt Show. "This is kind of make-or-break for the Vols. If they protect the quarterback and avoid mistakes, they’ll be right there. Ultimately, I'm going with a Bama win, 34–28, and I'll take the 7.5 with Tennessee." Alabama has been anywhere from 7.5 and 9.5 point favorites for most of this week.

Statistically, this shapes up as Alabama's high-efficiency pass game against Tennessee's rocky secondary and elite pass rush. Ty Simpson enters with 1,678 yards, 16 TDs and one INT (70.9% completions, 81.5 QBR), powering a Tide offense averaging 304.5 passing yards per game. Defensively, Alabama is allowing just 136.5 passing yards per game and has yielded five TD passes in six contests.

Tennessee counters with one of the nation's most productive attacks and superb pass protection. The Vols are averaging 48.2 points per game and have surrendered only four sacks all season (top-10 nationally). Quarterback Joey Aguilar leads with 1,680 passing yards, and Tennessee ranks second nationally with 26 sacks on defense. Aguilar has been a great story for the Vols after transferring in from UCLA. The QB trade of sorts has worked in Tennessee's favor.

Still, the Volunteers' back end has been vulnerable. Through mid-October they rank near the bottom nationally in pass defense (257.8 yards per game; worst in SEC), a troubling profile against Simpson and receivers Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton. Alabama's own pass rush has been modest (nine sacks in six games), but the Tide have controlled games while protecting the ball.

Klatt put the matchup this way: "Here’' the key in this football game: can Tennessee get pressure on Ty Simpson? If they do, they can control the passing game. If they don't, he'll eat them alive because Alabama is too good throwing the football." He added that Tennessee's offense "can absolutely score," but ball security is paramount in a venue where the Vols haven't won since 2003.

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Tennessee's offense, and elite pass rush can keep this game within one score. But Alabama's efficiency, secondary strength and Simpson's Heisman form make the Tide the sensible winner at home.

This article first appeared on CFB-HQ on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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