Louisville Cardinals On SI's Pitch on a New College Football Playoff Format

The only constant in life is change, and that statement couldn't be more true as it pertains to college football.

Among the many moving parts in the sport, both externally and internally, the most hotly-debated component is the postseason format. During the 10-year run of the four-team College Football Playoff, debate raged on regarding potential expansion, until the field finally increased to 12 teams last season.

Even with that sample size of just one season, many in college football are already wanting to change up the format again.

Next year's CFP already features some change, moving from guaranteed byes for the top four conference champions to straight seeding, although the top five league champs do still get a seat at the table. But for 2026 and beyond, anyone and everyone in college football seems to have an opinion on what the format should be.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey and Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark are in favor of expanding to 16 teams, but under a "5+11" modal. Big Ten commissioner Tony Pettiti is also in favor of 16 teams, but under a convoluted "4+4+2+2+1 (plus 3)" format. ACC commissioner Jim Phillips continues to support the current 5+7 model, but is open to other ideas. Then of course, almost every single coach in the sport has an opinion on their ideal format as well.

There are countless ideas out there from those in college football on how to adjust the format of the College Football Playoff. But with that being said, I figured I would put forth my idea in the ring as well.

On one hand, I do think that the 2024 format (12 teams plus guaranteed byes) probably needed a couple more seasons so that we have a good sample size to work with. On the other, the thought of a 16-team format for the sake of an even bracket probably makes a little more sense.

My hypothetical 16-team CFP would consist of the following:

• The eight teams that made the conference championship games for the Power Four conferences.
• The highest-ranked Group of Five conference championship game winner.
• Seven at-large bids.
• These 16 teams are seeded based on their placement in the final CFP rankings.
• First round takes place on campus and is hosted by higher seed, quarterfinals and semifinals are the New Year's Six bowls.

Using the final College Football Playoff rankings from last season, here is what my hypothetical CFP format would have looked like in 2024:

• *1. Oregon vs. *16. Iowa State
• 8. Indiana vs. ^9. Boise State
• *4. Penn State vs. 13. Miami
• 5. Notre Dame vs. *12. Arizona State
• *2. Georgia vs. *15. Clemson
• 7. Tennessee vs. *10. SMU
• *3. Texas vs. 14. Ole Miss
• 6. Ohio State vs. 11. Alabama

*Power conf. title game participant
^Highest-ranked G5 title game winner

The main reason a chose this format, specifically with the caveat that all eight power conference title game participants makes the CFP, is because I am firmly of the belief that conference championship games should still mean something. The discourse surrounding them last season, specifically on if teams should play in them at all so that they don't risk taking a loss and falling out of the field altogether, bothered me greatly.

A potential retort to this format is that power conference title games would lose even more meaning considering that both participants are guaranteed a spot in the CFP anyways. With that in mind, I have an idea that would give teams an incentive to want to try and win those games.

Under the current format, the New Year's Six bowls rotate on an annual basis. This past year, the Fiesta, Peach Rose and Sugar Bowl were the quarterfinal games; the Cotton and Orange Bowl were the semifinal games; and all six bowls were locked in place on the bracket.

But in my hypothetical format, the four highest-remaining teams to make it to the quarters would get to pick which NY6 game they wanted to play in, and the two highest-remaining teams in the semis would get to choose from whichever two bowls are left.

For example, let's say my hypothetical 2024 format was all chalk, and all eight higher seeds won. For the quarterfinals, you'd get:

• 1. Oregon vs. 8. Indiana
• 4. Penn St. vs. 5. Notre Dame
• 3. Texas vs. 6. Ohio State
• 2. Georgia vs. 7. Tennessee

Oregon, as the No. 1 seed, would get the first pick in the 'NY6 Draft' so to speak. The Rose Bowl is closest to Eugene, so the Ducks would likely choose to play the Hoosiers in Pasadena. With the Bulldogs at No. 2, the Peach Bowl is basically in their backyard, so it's an easy pick there. The same can be said for the No. 3 Longhorns and the Cotton Bowl. Then with the No. 4 Nittany Lions, the closest remaining NY6 to State College is the Sugar Bowl, so they choose to head to New Orleans.

The let's say more chalk happens, and we get No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 4. Penn State as well as No. 2. Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas. At this point, the two remaining NY6 bowls are the Fiesta and Orange Bowl. For both teams, it's fairly easy pick. The Ducks would choose to go to Phoenix, and the Bulldogs get to go to South Beach.

Is this a perfect format? Probably not. However, this is fairly close to resembling to what a 16-team straight seeding tournament would look like.

If the 2024 CFP used a 16-team straight seeding format, South Carolina at No. 15 would have gotten in, but not under my hypothetical format. That spot would have gone to Iowa State, who was ranked No. 18 but makes the field due to getting to the Big 12 Championship.

However, it's not a guarantee that this would happen every year.

I went back and crafted new fields using the final rankings for every year since the CFP started in 2014. Sure, I had to change the parameters a bit because of conference realignment (8 highest-ranked power conference title participants), but the premise is still the same.

Of the 10 hypothetical playoff fields from 2014 to 2023, just six teams made the field that wouldn't have gotten in under a straight 16-team seeding format:

• 2023: Liberty (No. 23)
• 2022: LSU (No. 17)
• 2019: Memphis (No. 17)
• 2018: Utah (No. 17)
• 2015: Houston (No. 18)
• 2014: Boise State (No. 22)

Just two of these teams ranked beyond the 'First Two Out,' so it's usually not a super egregious inclusion. Most importantly, there were four years in which no team got hypothetically screwed over, and no season had more than one team benefit from the hypothetical format over straight seeding.

There are plenty of hypothetical CFP formats out there that basically disincentivize either the regular season or conference championship games (or both). However, under this format, you would give both the regular season meaning - especially conference play - as well as the conference title games themselves.