Notre Dame Football: 5 Most Likely Bowl Scenarios After the Loss to Northern Illinois

Remember how this friends with benefits thing works with the ACC. Notre Dame is eligible for any of the ACC's bowl slots, but - more implied handshake than stick-to-contract real - it needs to be within one game one way or another of the ACC standings.

Take out the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl because Notre Dame played in that last year, whacking around a depleted Oregon State 40-8. Six wins would probably mean the Pop-Tarts Bowl vs the Big 12 or maybe the Pinstripe Bowl vs the Big Ten, but let's me more realistic and go with a seven or eight win season.

Eight wins puts the Holiday Bowl in play, but ... no. Losing three more games against this schedule means Notre Dame isn't very good at college football this season, but the brand name still probably means ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 7-5 or 8-4: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs UCF

NEXT: No. 4 Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 9-3

4. Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 9-3

Notre Dame isn't getting into the 12-team expanded College Football Playoff at 9-3.

It's not that 9-3 can't get it done, it's that 9-3 means the Irish won't have the resumé to get in over other 9-3 options, much less than 10-2 ones, even if they lose to Florida State and at USC.

But the branding still matters, every bowl would want the Irish and the audience no matter what, and the prospect of a ten-win season - while a massive disappointment to Notre Dame fans - would still be great.

The Pop-Tarts Bowl would be possible, and the Gator Bowl would be gettable, but the best option would be in San Diego.

With nine wins the Holiday Bowl makes the most sense. Notre Dame is national, the ACC schools would want to be regional, and the people at FOX would LOVE this. So if ESPN can't figure it out ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 7-5 or 8-4: Holiday Bowl vs Oregon

NEXT: No. 3 Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 10-2 ... and a loss at USC

3. Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 10-2 - and a loss at USC

So here's the real problem with the loss to Northern Illinois.

Had the Irish lost tastefully at Texas A&M to start the season and then beat Northern Illinois, there would be far more of a free pass. They were underdogs against the Aggies.

At that point, a 10-2 record would probably be enough to get into the expanded College Football Playoff, partially because it's Notre Dame. Now, because of the horrible loss to Northern Illinois, the Irish have to do something splashy, and there isn't enough water left in the pool to do a cannonball.

Florida State isn't any good, and beating Louisville and Georgia Tech wouldn't get anything more than an eyebrow raise. Basically, any win from here on - even if the Irish annihilate everyone over the next nine games - doesn't really matter if there isn't a win in LA.

The College Football Playoff committee LOVES momentum teams and hates drama and concerns - hello, 2023 Florida State, but that's for another day. So if the Irish go 10-2 and lose at USC, they can still get in if there aren't other 10-2 options, but the committee would likely go with another 10-2 team from a Power 4 conference - or a 10-3 team that lost its conference championship - over Notre Dame, so ...

Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 10-2 with a loss at USC: TaxSlayer Gator vs Missouri

NEXT: No. 2 Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 10-2 ... and a win at USC

2. Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 10-2 - and a win at USC

And then there's the flip side to the USC game.

Let's say Notre Dame does stumble against Floirda State, or in a great game at Georgia Tech, or against Louisville. If it's anyone else, forget it, and it's on to the Gator or Holiday Bowl. Those would still be just early enough to make the USC game matter.

And now let's say that USC stays good, it comes up with a few big wins - like at Michigan - and it's 9-2, or in a perfect world, 11-0 coming into the November 30th game.

The whole world will be watching, and if the Irish come up with their best performance of the season and beat the Trojans on the road, that would probably be just enough to sneak into the back end of the College Football Playoff field at around the 10 or 11.

Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 10-2 with win at USC: As the 10 seed, a first round game at Texas or Alabama

And finally ...

NEXT: No. 1 Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 11-1

1. Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 11-1

At 11-1, Notre Dame is in the College Football Playoff.

At that point, there's no worry about the Northern Illinois loss, the strength of schedule doesn't matter, and all the drama and concern right now would be totally forgotten.

The committee doesn't mess around, and it likes things clean and easy. If a Power 4-caliber program has an 11-1 record, it'll be ranked ahead of the 10-2 team. (The Florida State situation of last year was a totally different scenario - Alabama had to be in because it beat Georgia, Texas had to be in because it beat Bama, and ... but I digress.)

Assume a monster from the SEC or Big Ten that didn't win its conference championship will get the 5 seed. If Notre Dame goes 11-1 it'll at least get the 6, maybe the 5, but ...

It'll almost certainly be the 6 seed. That will mean it'll probably miss the token Group of Five champion, but as Northern Illinois proved, teams from outside of the Power 4 can be dangerous, too.

Notre Dame Bowl Projection at 11-1: 6th seed in the College Football Playoff and a first round home game vs Penn State