Notre Dame’s CFP Odds Fall Again — Is ESPN’s FPI Broken?

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 71.2%, Texas A&M 28.8%

Previously: Notre Dame up 1.7% since last week

September 20: Notre Dame vs. Purdue

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 94.1%, Purdue 5,9%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.5% from last week

September 27: Notre Dame at Arkansas

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 54.9%, Arkansas 45.1%

Previously: Notre Dame down 12.9% from last week

October 4: Notre Dame vs. Boise State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.5%, Boise State 10.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 2.5% from last week

October 11: Notre Dame vs. NC State

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.3%, North Carolina State 10.7%

Previously: Notre Dame down 1.3% from last week

October 18: Notre Dame vs. USC

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 50.6%, USC 49.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 5.7% from last week

November 1: Notre Dame at Boston College

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 79.6%, Boston College 20.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.4% from last week

November 8: Notre Dame vs. Navy

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 92.6%, Navy 7.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.5% from last week

November 15: Notre Dame at Pittsburgh

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 74.6%, Pittsburgh 25.4%

Previously: Notre Dame down 5.8% from last week

November 22: Notre Dame vs. Syracuse

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 90.0%, Syracuse 10.0%

Previously: Notre Dame down 0.6% from last week

November 29: Notre Dame at Stanford

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances of Victory:

Notre Dame 89.3%, Stanford 10.7%

Previously: Notre Dame up 0.9% since last week

ESPN FPI's Notre Dame Rest of Season Odds:

ESPN FPI has Notre Dame projected for the rest of Notre Dame's season.

Projected record: 8.8-32, down from 9.0-3.0

Win Out: 6.4%, down from 10.1%

6 or more wins: 99.6% (down 0.1%)

Make College Football Playoff: 24.7% (down 7.7%)

Make National Championship Game: 3.2% (down 2.3%)

Win National Championship: 1.3% (down 1.0%)

Nick Shepkowski's Lasting Thoughts:

Notre Dame gained a little bit in its chances to win the game Saturday against Texas A&M but the lovefest from FPI to USC continues. The Trojans beat up another tomato can this weekend, a 59-20 victory over Georgia Southern, and moved up to No. 5 in the FPI rankings.

Notre Dame has gone from having an over 70% chance of winning that game two weeks ago to essentially being a coin flip at home against the Trojans on October 18.

Notre Dame's sample in the formula isn't great, as the Miami game was disappointing, but the disrespect is rather absurd, as it appears there is nothing it likes more than simply blowing out awful teams, like Oregon did to Oklahoma State as the Ducks soared six spots to No. 1 this week.

Also, Alabama, fresh off a 77-0 victory over the always intimidating Louisiana-Monroe, moved up nine spots to No. 4 after getting crushed at Florida State a week ago - all while the Seminoles sit at No. 26 overall.

If you understand it then feel free to explain because this is making no sense early in the year.