Preseason AP Poll’s Credibility Crumbles After Week 6

After the shock wore off, many saw the writing that has been on the wall for years. The preseason AP Poll is a joke. Whether it’s Texas A&M in 2022, FSU in 2024 or Clemson in 2025, there’s always a team who bombs with high expectations. The problem is how media pundits arrive at those expectations.

Outside of spring games with limited implications, which are also a dying breed, everyone is guessing. Will every new transfer blossom? Has complacency set in for the team that just won it all? These are unanswerable questions that the AP Poll tries and fails to answer. Predicting things like team culture, a recruit’s development or a coordinator hire are impossible unless you are at practice. There’s nothing wrong with predictions, but the preseason poll has influence beyond the beginning of the season.

Many understand that the preseason AP Poll is a pointless exercise. It is food for thought during what can be an extremely dry offseason. Those on the outside enjoy debating and predicting once the poll is released, which is fine. But, once play begins, the rankings should be out the window. Others fail to recognize that. And far too often, the preseason poll influences perception after the season begins. Many cling to it like gospel for the entire season. Nobody does this more than the AP voters themselves. 

Bias in Practice

No. 17 Illinois (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) was the best example of this. Even after its 63-10 loss at No. 7 Indiana (5-0, 2-0), and with zero quality wins, Illinois remained ranked at No. 23. The only plausible explanation for this was the Illini’s preseason top 10 ranking due to its high number of returning starters. This is a microcosm of what is wrong with the poll. Just because a team is supposed to be a contender doesn’t mean it should be given the benefit of the doubt after the season has begun.

These problems, while pointed out by those who follow the sport closely, often go unnoticed. That changed this week. With the preseason top two teams now both having two losses, the problem is glaring. The AP had no choice but to admit fault and drop Texas and Penn State from the Top 25 entirely. This was, in essence, an admission of fault by the college football media that they blindly trusted these teams. If potential is all that matters and results are irrelevant, then why play the games? 

There are exceptions, but they are rare. If a 2010s Alabama team dropped an SEC road game early, it was hard to argue with them remaining ranked as a top team. However, the days of teams like that are long gone. But AP voters seem to have a hard time accepting that and continue to reward what a team looks like on paper instead of what they do on the field.

Solutions

There are a variety of ways this could be fixed. Changing criteria for getting a vote, rewarding those with accurate preseason predictions, etc. But, none of these will address this problem at its root. The preseason AP Poll should be removed entirely. Individual media members can create their own top 25, and can debate amongst themselves on the ESPNs or FS1s of the world. Those who trust these personalities are welcome to see what each thinks, but the idea that the AP Poll is consensus or universally agreed upon is a lie. Saturday’s games just proved that. 

It is unlikely that the preseason AP Poll will be eliminated, but its credibility is shot. Occasionally it will accurately predict a team, but even a broken clock is right twice a day.