SEC Upset Shakes Up the College Football World

For the second time in two weeks, a top 15 SEC team suffered a shocking upset loss. This time around, it was Florida falling to South Florida, 18-16, and the importance of the game will make some major waves across college football.

Impact on the Gators

First, Florida. ESPN's FPI had the Gators with a 30.8% chance of a College Football Playoff spot. That was closing in on the outskirts of a potential CFP field, but that certainly takes a step back for UF. To say that Florida has an uphill climb to the CFP from here would be an understatement.

UF's remaining non-conference games are at Miami and at home against Florida State. Even with a split of those games, Florida probably has to go 7-1 in the SEC to have a Playoff shot. For a team with a conference slate that includes at LSU, at Texas A&M, home against Texas, and the annual neutral site game with Georgia, that feels somewhere beyond ambitious. The Gators need multiple uipsets on the order of USF's win over them to stay in the CFP picture.

Impact on the SEC

Florida's loss might subtly shift the pecking order for four SEC CFP bids. ESPN's projections love Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss for CFP selection, with the potential fourth slot a tough call at the moment between LSU and Tennessee. South Carolina and Texas A&M now have a bit better shot to wedge themselves into that conversation with some upsets.

USF as a G5 pick

The other CFP issue that arises out of South Florida's win is the Bulls themselves as a contender for the G5 bid. The top CFP-rated G5 conference winner will pick up a slot in the Playoff. Coming into the weekend, USF was already third in ESPN's projected chances for the G5 slot behind Tulane and Memphis. USF can now claim wins over a pair of teams that were in the top 25. The Bulls pushed Boise State out of the top 25 and may now do the same to Florida. They probably jump to the top of the G5 pack.

Of course, all of those top teams in ESPN's FPI projections are members of the AAC, so USF's win just pushes that league into even better shape for producing the G5 CFP team. Tulane and South Florida both have to play at Memphis, but don't play each other.