Texas vs. Ohio State new football prediction: What the analytics say

No. 1 Texas takes on reigning national champion No. 3 Ohio State in college football’s marquee 2025 season opener on Saturday in a rematch of the CFP semifinal game. Let’s take a look at the latest prediction for the matchup from an analytical model that simulates games and picks winners.

Ohio State used a dramatic win over Texas to advance to the national title game last postseason, knocking off Notre Dame to win its first championship in a decade, but replaced a ton of outgoing production, including both coordinators.

Texas debuts Arch Manning as its starting quarterback in this game, and while the former No. 1 overall recruit finds his way leading this offense, the Longhorns’ pass rush will get to work harassing Ohio State’s new quarterback, Julian Sayin.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams and picks winners based on a projected scoring margin per game.

Texas vs. Ohio State football prediction

Heading into this SEC vs. Big Ten clash, the computers are siding with the visitors over the defending national champions.

Texas is the favorite to win the game outright, coming out ahead in 53.3 percent of the computer’s simulations for the Week 1 matchup.

That leaves Ohio State defending its home turf as the underdog, edging out Texas in the remaining 46.7 percent of sims in this game.

Texas comes out on top in 10,660 of the computer’s simulations for the game, while Ohio State emerged as the expected winner in the remaining 9,340 predictions.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game? Expect a very close result in the Horseshoe.

Texas is projected to be just 0.7 points better than Ohio State on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would go on the books as an upset, according to the most recent betting lines.

That’s because Ohio State is a 2.5 point favorite against Texas, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 47.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -126 and for Texas at +105 to win the game outright.

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Where the money is going

A slight majority of bettors are siding with the Longhorns to take care of the Buckeyes on the road in the opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Texas is getting 54 percent of bets to win the game outright in an upset or to keep the final margin under a field goal in a loss.

The other 46 percent of wagers project Ohio State will defeat the Longhorns at home by at least a field goal and cover the narrow point spread.

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Ohio State vs. Texas future projections

Texas is the No. 1 team in the nation, according to the Power Index’s complete 136-team college football rankings heading into the 2025 season opener.

The index projects the Longhorns will be 24.5 points better than an average opponent on a neutral field, the widest margin of any team in the country.

That calculates into a 37.4 percent chance to win the SEC, the highest odds of any team in the conference, and a 24.5 percent shot to win the national championship, the best marks of any school in college football.

Ohio State isn’t far behind, coming in as the No. 4 team in the index’s 136-team rankings, projected to be 20.5 points better than an average opponent.

And the Buckeyes lead the way in the Big Ten title odds, with a 35.3 percent chance to win the conference crown and have a 10.3 percent shot to win a second-straight national championship, fourth in the country.

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College Football Power Index

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

And it was one of a select few models that went over 50 percent when making its predictions against the spread, coming out ahead in 52.235 percent of its ATS projections. That was good for second-best among all college football prediction models among 55 various outlets.

Over the last decade, the Football Power Index has proven correct on 75 percent of FBS college football game predictions, including in 73 percent of matchups when it favored a team with at least 70 percent likelihood to win.

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AP top 25 college football rankings

First-place votes in parentheses

1. Texas (25)
2. Penn State (23)
3. Ohio State (11)
4. Clemson (4)
5. Georgia (1)
6. Notre Dame
7. Oregon (1)
8. Alabama 
9. LSU
10. Miami
11. Arizona State
12. Illinois 
13. South Carolina
14. Michigan
15. Florida
16. SMU
17. Kansas State
18. Oklahoma
19. Texas A&M
20. Indiana
21. Ole Miss
22. Iowa State
23. Texas Tech
24. Tennessee
25. Boise State

How did we do? Our AP top 25 rankings prediction

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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