'TNF' best bets: Rough seas ahead for Vikings

Week 2 is overreaction week on the NFL calendar. For the most part, no team is as good as they looked in Week 1, just as no team is as bad as they looked to start the year. It's our job to sort out what was real and what was a fluke in Week 1, so let's start with this week's "Thursday Night Football" matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Regression is coming for the Vikings

The Vikings were a full fade for us entering the season. Minnesota lucked its way to a 13-4 record last season despite a -3 point differential and a bottom-five ranking in overall DVOA. The Vikings went 11-0 in one-score games last year, but we're already seeing some regression to the mean with their 20-17 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1.

Over the next four weeks, the Vikings will play the Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers, Carolina Panthers, and Kansas City Chiefs. Kevin O'Connell's squad could easily be 1-4 by mid-October, so we're getting ahead of this stretch by betting on Minnesota to go under its updated win total. There's also an option to take the Vikings not to make the playoffs at -200, and even though it's expensive, that price still isn't low enough.

The bet to make: Vikings under 7.5 wins (+110 DraftKings)

Don't panic about the Eagles just yet

If you scrolled through the discourse on Eagles Twitter after Week 1, you would've thought Philadelphia got blown out. Sure, it wasn't the most encouraging start to the season. The Eagles were outscored by the New England Patriots, 20-9, after the first quarter, the offense struggled to create the splash plays that made them so dominant last season and the defense let receivers run wide-open over the middle of the field for much of the game.

Yet, despite playing a C-minus game, the Eagles left New England with a 25-20 victory (and a cover!). 

We're already seeing plenty of overreactions to the performance. The Eagles were breaking in two new coordinators on both sides of the ball, the starters didn't play a snap in the preseason, and they were going up against one of the greatest defensive minds in the history of football with a full offseason to prepare. It may not have been pretty, but winning trumps all in the NFL. Ask the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals about that.

The Eagles are still the class of the NFC, and they'll only get better as the season rolls along.

The bet to make: Eagles to win the NFC (+370 FanDuel)

In the news ...

Matt Olson cracks record-tying 51st homer as Braves closing in on NL East title — It's been a magical season for Olson and the Atlanta Braves, and it just keeps getting better. On Tuesday night, Olson hit his 51st home run of the year to tie Andruw Jones's franchise record. The 29-year-old slugger will get a chance to break the record Wednesday night against the Philadelphia Phillies, and the Braves can clinch the NL East with a win. If you believe in the hype, Atlanta is a +300 favorite to win the World Series.  

Steelers lose Diontae Johnson and Cameron Heyward to injuries — This wasn't the start to the season Steelers fans envisioned. First, Pittsburgh got embarrassed on their home field in a 30-7 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, then the team lost wide receiver Diontae Johnson and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward to significant injuries. Johnson will miss a few weeks due to a hamstring injury, and Heyward will undergo surgery for a groin injury and is out indefinitely. The Steelers are now +750 to win the AFC North.  

The PGA Tour returns this week with the Fortinet Championship — The shortest offseason in sports is already over, as the PGA Tour gets set to begin its FedEx Cup Fall schedule this week. First up is the Fortinet Championship at the Silverado Resort in Napa, Calif., which will begin this Thursday morning. Max Homa, the two-time reigning champion, is the betting favorite to three-peat at +700, and Justin Thomas is second on the odds board at +1600.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Jack Dougherty