Top College Football ATS Picks: No. 5 Virginia at Notre Dame, No. 4 Missouri at South Carolina

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5. Virginia at Notre Dame

Line: Notre Dame -22

Prediction: Notre Dame

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- Week 12 Schedule, Predictions

If you’ve been with me over the years you know how this works. Every once in a while I make a pick just because.

I can get into the numbers, the how, the why, and the breakdown, but really, it’s just because one team is playing a certain way and the pick makes sense.

Everyone seems to be ignoring that Notre Dame is absolutely destroying everyone right now.

I know, the world is still scarred by whatever that was against Northern Illinois, and blasting Florida State is no big whoop, but outside of the 31-24 win over Louisville all the other wins have been by double-digits.

Yeah, the 22 might seem like a bunch considering Virginia it decent - the 41-14 loss to North Carolina is the only time it’s been beaten by at least 22 - but the Irish defense is playing at a whole other level, Virginia allowed 41 points or more in two of the last three games, and until this stops, go with the hot team.

4. Missouri at South Carolina

Line: Point Total 41.5

Prediction: Over

You had me with the under at 43.5, but you lost me when it dropped to 41.5.

I’m not getting fooled by the crazy finish in the 30-23 Mizzou win over Oklahoma, though.

That game was a dog with fleas until everyone started screwing up. The real Missouri offense will be the one that struggles to get to 21 points for the third time in four games - and UMass was one of the outliers.

The South Carolina defense has been terrific lately, but the fear is an offense that found its stride scoring 44 on Texas A&M and 25 on Oklahoma.

And there’s the issue.

The Gamecocks should be good for at least 24. Missouri’s offense might be struggling, but it’ll carry enough weight to just push through to 42. We all might have to work a bit and wait to get there, but it’s coming.

NEXT: 3. Tennessee at Georgia & 2. Murray State at Kentucky

10 Best Picks Against the Spread
10. Double Digit Home Dogs
9. Kansas at BYU
8. Syracuse at Cal
7. Oregon at Wisconsin
6. North Carolina at Wake Forest
5. Virginia at Notre Dame
4. Missouri at South Carolina
3. Tennessee at Georgia
2. Murray State at Kentucky
1. Washington State at New Mexico