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From left: Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama. USA TODAY Sports photos

Golf best bets: Outright picks for the PGA Championship

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 5/13/24

Can you smell that? That's the sweet scent of a major championship week, as the best in the world are set to congregate at Valhalla Golf Club for the 2024 PGA Championship.

Scottie Scheffler, a winner in four of his last five starts, is rightfully the betting favorite at +400, but Rory McIlroy is right behind him at +700. Those prices are a bit steep for our blood, so we're looking further down the odds board for our three outright bets this week.

Jon Rahm (+2000 BetMGM)

Jon Rahm was widely considered the second-best player in the world when he left for LIV Golf, and now he's 20/1 to win a major with six players ahead of him on the odds board? We don't agree with this price, so we'll gladly bet into it.

Sportsbooks and bettors are likely fading Rahm because of his disappointing T45 at The Masters, but it's not easy to defend a major title, especially when you have to host the Champions Dinner for the first time. We're willing to let that performance slide. On LIV, Rahm hasn't finished worse than T10 in seven starts this season.

Valhalla is a great golf course for Rahm because he hits it long and straight off the tee and is a brilliant long-iron player. The Spaniard is still an elite talent right behind Scheffler in McIlroy, so we're taking the discount.

Bryson DeChambeau (+2800 BetMGM)

This might be our favorite play of the week. Bryson DeChambeau was in contention at The Masters and finished T6, but Augusta National isn't a great course fit for the bomber. The hard-hitting American thrives on lengthy, open golf courses where he can send driver as far as possible and set up shorter approach shots than anyone in the field, and that's what we have at Valhalla.

Valhalla is a massive course that will play longer than 7,600 yards as a par 71. Five par 4s measure longer than 480 yards, and all three par 5s will play close to 600 yards. This is a similar layout to the one we saw at Winged Foot in 2020, where DeChambeau used the bomb and gouge strategy to win by six strokes.

Hideki Matsuyama (+5500 BetMGM)

This is a scary bet to place because Hideki Matsuyama withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship last week due to a back injury, but there's always a risk associated with the Japanese star. We're choosing to believe the WD was precautionary to make sure he was ready for the PGA Championship, and if that's the case, this price is way off.

Matsuyama is putting on a ball-striking clinic this season. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green, and he's gained strokes in three of the four major categories three times in his last five starts. This is a great course fit for Matsuyama, so he'll be in the mix on the weekend as long as his back holds up.

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