Kentucky Derby contender Skinner Matt Stone/Louisville Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Kentucky Derby bets: Should you bet on a long shot to win the Kentucky Derby?

By Chelena Goldman | Last updated May 1, 2023 4:40 PM ET

It's time to pull that crazy hat out of the closet because the Kentucky Derby is Saturday, May 6. And you know what that also means: It's time to read up on this year's field full of ponies to decide which one you want to bet a little cheddar on.

UPDATE: Forte, the favorite in the Kentucky Derby, was scratched from the race on Saturday morning after suffering a bruised foot.

But while it may be tempting to simply pick one of the favored horses to win the Fastest Two Minutes In Sports, you should probably take a minute and ask yourself: After what happened at last year's Kentucky Derby, are you better off wagering on a long shot to pull off an upset in 2023?

LAS VEGAS: Final Kentucky Derby Odds

Before the Draw, Here is the final Kentucky Derby Odds as of 8AM (PDT) here in Vegas.

Who do you like? @KentuckyDerby @ChurchillDowns @TVG @TheNYRA @TwinSpires @SantaAnitaPark #KentuckyDerby pic.twitter.com/9R4t1vRG2F
— RacingDownWind (@RacingDownWind) May 1, 2023

History was made in 2022 when Rich Strike -- a young colt who was only added to the Kentucky Derby field the day before -- won the race as an 80-1 long shot. The only winner with longer odds in the history of the race was Donerail, who won in 1913 after being listed at 91-1.

While that seems like an awfully long time in between wins for major long shots, it should be noted that 2019 Derby winner Country House also had insanely long odds, entering race day at 65-1. There was also 2005 winner Giacomo and 2009 winner Mine That Bird, both of which were listed at 50-1 before becoming victorious at Churchill Downs.

“A stunning, unbelieeeevable upset!”@larrycollmus calls the number 2 moment on our 2022 Top 10 countdown: Rich Strike’s Kentucky Derby victory. pic.twitter.com/tKwcdYfVHm
— NBC Sports (@NBCSports) December 30, 2022

But are the experts saying you should go ahead and put your money on one of the long shots ahead of the 2023 Run For The Roses? Two of the six experts listed on the Kentucky Derby website are picking favorite Forte (3-1) to win it all, although Practical Move (10-1) and Kingsbarns (12-1) have also caught some attention. Over at CBS Sports, SportsLine expert Jody Demling is fading Forte in favor of Two Phil's (12-1) who won the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 25. And at Sportsnaut, Confidence Game (20-1) is listed as a long shot that could really shake things up on race day.

Of course, at the end of the day, there's no actual science to predicting whether a favorite or long shot will win the Kentucky Derby. Even if you do all of your homework, picking a Derby winner is still, for lack of a better word, a gamble. But now that you know how often long shots actually cross the finish line first, it probably doesn't seem like such a bad idea to pick a "dark horse" to win the most popular race of the season.

The 149th Kentucky Derby gets underway on Saturday, May 6. You can find start times for Derby Day races here.

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