2026 Fantasy Baseball: 5 Tommy John Rebound Sleepers

In fantasy baseball, if you assume every member of your team will appear in only 120 games, or make just 20 starts, you are already ahead of your league mates. While you are crying about some season-ending injury to your third-round stud, an opponent is already implementing his contingency plans to deal with his own team’s injuries.

Knowing that at least a couple of starting pitchers will miss significant time this season reframes your expectations and makes full-season planning easier. One group of players who can be extremely valuable to your team are pitchers returning from injury, particularly Tommy John surgery. There will be big names returning from Tommy John this year and though they may not pitch at full strength, getting 75-80 percent of them can tilt the scales in your favor.

We have five pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery – or more accurately ulnar collateral ligament procedures. While Tommy John surgery is almost as familiar to us as day-night doubleheaders and sacrifice bunts, a newer procedure to avoid Tommy John is being used to cut recovery time and speed rehabilitation.

What Is Tommy John Surgery?

Tommy John surgery is a procedure to repair a tear to the ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in the elbow. The UCL is a ligament that connects the humerus (upper arm bone) to the ulna (lower arm bone on the pinky side of the forearm). It is a thick band of three bands of issue that are intended to resist the force of throwing overhand. A full 39 percent of MLB pitchers have had Tommy John surgery at some point in their careers.

When the UCL is torn, Tommy John surgery is often the remedy. This surgery uses a tendon from another part of the body, or from a donor or cadaver, to replace the damaged ligament. The new tendon is threaded through holes that are drilled into the humerus and ulna, and eventually assumes the function of the original ligament.

Pitchers return to action after 12-18 months following Tommy John.

What Is the Alternative to Tommy John Surgery Called an Internal Brace?

There is a newer type of surgery — a UCL repair with an internal brace is becoming commonplace among UCL tear patients. During this procedure, the surgeon repairs and reattaches the ligament before adding a collagen fiber tape stitch, called an internal brace, which attaches to holes drilled into the humerus and ulna to support the ligament as it heals.

This surgery is more appealing because recovery is quicker and pitchers generally can begin throwing around three months post-surgery compared to 9-12 months for Tommy John.

Source: Cleveland Clinic

What Can a Pitcher Expect When He Returns From Both TJ Surgery and Internal Brace?

This is a tricky question as each pitcher’s anatomy is unique and UCL tears vary in severity. But because Tommy John surgery is now more than 50 years old, we have data on recovery. Recovery rates are largely based on age. Let’s take a look at the breakdown.

How Does Age Determine Tommy John Recovery?

Recent data divides pitchers into three cohorts: younger pitchers (under age 26), prime age pitchers (26-30) and veterans (30+). Here is the breakdown:

Sources: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih, aoao

Which Players Are Returning From Tommy John Surgery (or an Internal Brace) in 2026?

For purposes of fantasy baseball in 2026, we see five names who can have measurable impact this season upon their return. Remember, you’re almost certainly getting a reduced version of each name you see here, but if you adjust your historical expectations you can see exactly what they could contribute to your team.

Gerrit Cole (Yankees)

Cole tore his UCL in March last year, after experiencing some elbow pain the year before. Although he had the internal brace procedure, his age and previous elbow injury forced his timetable to be closer to the traditional Tommy John time of 12-18 months. The Yankees hope for a June-ish return. He started throwing in November and has thrown bullpen sessions this spring. Assuming his rehab continues to progress well, I would expect three months out of four months of Cole if he debuts around June 1. Cole’s ADP this spring is 201, so if your league has IL slots, think about him after pick 180.

Jared Jones (Pirates)

Jared Jones brings high-velocity upside with internal brace recovery momentum.© John Jones-Imagn Images

Jones was initially reported to have a strained UCL in March last year, but eventually had the reparative surgery in May and was throwing by September. In 2024, he struck out just shy of 10 batters per nine innings, relying on a 98 mph fastball. The Pirates expect to have him for most or all of the season. Being a name many won’t recognize or remember, he is being drafted at 378 as the 161st pitcher (CBS leagues though are drafting him around 200). Given his age and obscurity, Jones is a perfect sleeper for the back end of your fantasy baseball rotation. The odds say to believe in a good year, with promise of more as the year goes on.

Justin Steele (Cubs)

Justin Steele profiles as ratio stabilizer with realistic mid-rotation rebound expectations.Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Technically, Steele has had both Tommy John surgery and the internal brace procedure. He had Tommy John in 2017, but in April 2025, he required the brace surgery for the flexor tendon and the UCL. Not much is known about when he’ll return this season but the Steamer projection system gives him 15 starts, 83 IP, a 3.64 ERA along with 8.53 K/9. Not a bad partial season and one you’ll be happy to have when … say it with me … your ace goes down with a torn UCL. His ADP is 336 so he’ll be an easy stash on your IL.

Joe Musgrove (Padres)

Joe Musgrove offers volume potential after full recovery from lost 2025 season.Robert Edwards-Imagn Images

Musgrove had Tommy John in October 2024 and missed the entire 2025 season. So the good news is that he’ll pitch most of this season. At age 32, it will be a wait-and-see approach to how much he can help your team but Steamer is calling for 159 IP over 28 starts and a 3.89 ERA, combined with an 8.51 K/9 rate. He is being drafted at 241 on average and should have contributions to make to your team. As the 73rd starter off the board, you might enjoy some riches from a name many have forgotten about.

Ricky Tiedemann (Blue Jays)

Tiedemann projects to be a mid-rotation starter. He has a fastball that touches 98 mph and the lefty owns a really nasty sweeping breaking ball. He had Tommy John in July 2024, so he could be a full go for the 2026 season. While he is probably slated for bullpen innings initially to build up his arm strength, and to confound left-handed bats he might be a sneaky sleeper in whatever role he assumes for the Jays. His ADP is near 700, and he’s never pitched in the majors, so his profile will remain low initially. But monitor him in spring training as he might be a late draft or early waiver wire steal.

How to Use Tommy John Rebound Data

In a word (OK, three of them): adjust your expectations. When Gerrit Cole arrives he is not going to be the Yankees ace, but I’d expect at least a mid-rotation performance from him.

But in these names I see a lot of value that others in your league are likely to overlook. The more you know about these procedures and the typical recovery, and the nuanced effects of age and velocity, the better prepared you’ll be to dominate your fantasy baseball league.

MLB News

2026 Fantasy Baseball: 5 Tommy John Rebound Sleepers

What Is Tommy John Surgery?

What Is the Alternative to Tommy John Surgery Called an Internal Brace?

What Can a Pitcher Expect When He Returns From Both TJ Surgery and Internal Brace?

How Does Age Determine Tommy John Recovery?