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2026 Fantasy Baseball: Closer Confidential — Updating Bullpen Confidence Grades

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2026 Fantasy Baseball: Closer Confidential — Updating Bullpen Confidence Grades

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Tom McFeeley | Last updated Mar 18, 2026 11:38 AM ET

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As spring training winds to an end, many of the bullpen situations we evaluated last month have gained a lot of clarity, mostly in the closer-by-committee situations. So as we head into the biggest fantasy baseball draft weekend of the year, here are updated confidence grades for major league bullpens.

A Quick Review

Closer Confidential is our regular series in which I grant a confidence grade to every closer or committee in the majors. The back-end relievers are divided into three groups:

Secure Closers: 90 and Above
These closers are low-to-no risk of losing their jobs, pending injury or the bottom falling out. They have good results, generally very strong underlying statistics and in good situations in their bullpen.

Shaky Closers: 80-89
This cohort can be as close to Secure as it is to Seesaw. These guys tend to be up and down, if not in converting saves, then in their baseline skills and tendencies.

Seesaw Closers: 79 and Below
Your guess is (almost) as good as mine whether he will convert a save next time out. Or he’s part of a committee. But worry abounds in this group and uncertainty is the main factor in a lack of confidence here.

Secure Closers

We’re going to tackle the easy group first: Secure Closers. There really is so little that changes in this group during the spring, other than one notable injury situation this year. Josh Hader will begin the season on the IL with a bicep inflammation. The injury shouldn’t take long to recover from — Hader is already throwing bullpen sessions — but Hader’s age could slow him down in recovery. Bryan Abreu steps in and you can find him in the Shaky Closers section. The rest stays the same, though Bednar’s WBC performance has me at least leaning higher and Mason Miller could reach a record-tying 98 Confidence Grade early in the season.

Closer	Next Option(s)	Confidence Grade
Edwin Diaz - LAD	Tanner Scott	95
Mason Miller - SD	Jeremiah Estrada	95
Jhoan Duran – PHI	Jose Alvarado	93
Cade Smith – CLE	Hunter Gaddis	92
Josh Hader – HOU*	Bryan Abreu	92
David Bednar – NYY	Camilo Doval	92
Devin Williams – NYM	Luke Weaver	90
Andres Munoz – SEA	Matt Brash	90

(* Hader to begin season on the IL)

Shaky Closers

Bryan Abreu steps into Houston’s ninth inning with near-elite skills, offering immediate saves despite limited closing track record.© Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

Abreu is here only because he has limited experience closing, so inclusion here is more of an initial probationary period. But he is like 89.444444, so close to being rounded up to 90 and the Secure group. If Hader has an injury-filled season, the Astros shouldn’t worry, other than who backs up Abreu, but believe in him until we see something that shakes that belief.

I’ve changed two other Confidence Grades: Carlos Estévez in KC has looked putrid this spring and may not even make it to Opening Day as the closer. So he’s been downgraded to an 80 Confidence Grade. Daniel Palencia is who we thought Daniel Palencia is, at least he was in the World Baseball Classic for Venezuela. He needs more time in the role, but I increased his grade to 86 from 81 based on meaningful, pressure-filled situations that would be impossible in regular spring training.

I’m leaning a touch higher on Walker and Fairbanks, but it’s just spring training, but I’m watching. We are going to move Megill and Uribe down to the Shaky group since we lack much clarity and believe Uribe might slide into that role to start the season. If either of them is named the closer, I’d treat them both with 85-ish grades (Megill an 84 and Uribe perhaps an 86), but now we are speculating beyond the current situation.

Pitcher	Next Option(s)	Confidence Grade
Bryan Abreu - HOU	Bryan King, Josh Hader (inj.)	89 (new closer)
Aroldis Chapman – BOS	Garrett Whitlock	88
Jeff Hoffman – TOR	Yimi Garcia	87
Raisel Iglesias – ATL	Robert Suarez	87
Daniel Palencia – CHC	Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey	86 (81)
Ryan Helsley – BAL	Andrew Kittredge	85
Ryan Walker – SF	Joel Peguero, Jose Butto	85
Pete Fairbanks – MIA	Calvin Faucher	84
Emilio Pagan – CIN	Tony Santillan	83
Kenley Jansen – DET	Will Vest, Kyle Finnegan	81
Carlos Estevez – KC	Lucas Erceg	80 (87)

(Changes in Confidence Grade or Personnel in bold)

Seesaw Situations

Griffin Jax’s strong spring and WBC showing elevate him within Tampa’s committee, creating emerging saves and holds value.Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

We put the Milwaukee situation up top since we like both arms and it’s Pat Murphy’s call there. If there is news before your draft, select accordingly. In St. Louis, we have not changed the score, but we’ve added Matt Svanson as the “main” closer. Based on spring performance, Svanson will likely get the first opportunity, but who knows about the second, and, frankly, how many save situations there will be in the shadow of the Arch.

I’ve upgraded the Tampa Confidence Grade, as it appears at least that Griffin Jax has seized the role with Edwin Uceta’s injury. Jax looked good for Team USA in the WBC, so if he holds the job, will climb this board quickly. But even if he’s not firmly the closer, he’s an arm worth rostering, especially if your league rewards holds.

In Washington both Beeter and Henry have pitched well, with Beeter having a slight advantage. But like the Cardinals, it’s hard to get excited about any Nats closer.

Trevor Megill remains part of Milwaukee’s uncertain committee, making role clarity a key risk factor for fantasy managers.© Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

I’m not changing the Pirates grade of 75 — yet. But Soto is rising, another WBC performance raising our eyebrows. Santana is the definition of shaky and should lose that job either quickly or eventually.

I like Taylor Rogers as a RP. I don’t like Taylor Rogers as a closer. But it’s Minnesota so it’s not worth devoting a lot of time to it.

In Anaheim, Kirby Yates, as I thought he would, is on the verge of seizing the job. I’m not incredibly confident in his success but I think his experience and his arm make him the best suited for the role. We’ll keep watching.

Pitcher	Next Option(s)	Confidence Grade
Trevor Megill – MIL	Abner Uribe	79
Seranthony Dominguez - CHW	Jordan Leasure	79
*Griffin Jax - TB**	Garrett Cleavinger, Edwin Uceta (inj.)	75 (68)
Dennis Santana – PIT	Gregory Soto	75
Victor Vodnik* – COL	Seth Halvorsen, Zach Agnos	73
Kirby Yates* - LAA	Robert Stevenson, Drew Pomeranz	70
Robert Garcia* - TEX	Alexis Diaz, Cole Winn, Chris Martin	68
Mark Leiter Jr* - ATH	Hogan Harris, Justin Sterner	68
Clayton Beeter* - WAS	Cole Henry	68
Matt Svanson – STL*	Riley O’Brien, JoJo Romero	68
Kevin Ginkel* - ARI	Paul Sewald	68
Taylor Rogers* - MIN	Justin Topa, Cole Sands	68