Aaron Judge 2026 Fantasy Bold Predictions

Injuries Happen

I have said it before and this is not the last time you will read it, father time is undefeated. Judge is now 33 years old and has not had injury concerns since 2023, but that has to be in your mind. Players who get older are more likely to have minor injuries keep them out of the lineup. He had a hip flexor issue in 2025 that barely kept him out of the lineup and has never had three 500+ at bat seasons in a row so that would break this year.

Many teams will cycle older players through their DH position. That is not possible with Giancarlo “don’t call me Mike” Stanton still on the roster.

Yankee Stadium Power Boost Is Still There

Judge will hear “all rise” many times in 2026 with the jet stream going to right field in Yankee Stadium. If you take a look at his spray chart, you can see that he goes to all fields equally and that many of his home runs are to the opposite field with a cluster where the jet stream is in right center field.

Having the Tampa Bay stadium, Fenway, and Camden Yards in the division does not hurt the power numbers either.

Projected HR & RBI Output

Let’s first reiterate the chart that shows age versus 30+ home run seasons.

Now no one is saying that Judge would potentially not hit 30 home runs. A serious injury would have to happen to the gentle giant for that to occur. What I am saying is that after the age of 30, the home runs come less often unless there is a swing change that usually would affect batting average. Judge has been elite in batting average for the last two years with .331 and .322 respectively.

Let’s look at a couple of metrics. First, his ground ball rate is up for the third straight year with the fly ball rate the same so he is hitting less line drives. His contact rate is just 70% and he has had 160+ strikeouts in each of the last two seasons. HIs xBA was .297 which says that his average should take a dip.

So, my prediction for his stats in 2026 is:
.295 batting average, 44 home runs, 115 runs batted in, 128 runs scored, and 8 stolen bases.

Prediction 2: Top-3 MVP Finish Drives Elite Counting Stats

Narrative and Team Success

Playing in New York or Los Angeles to see the players more in the news certainly helps at MVP time as well. The Yankees have had a track record of success and especially in the Aaron Judge ERA. The loss of Juan Soto to their crosstown rival before the 2025 season slowed Judge and the team a bit offensively. That said, he is the reigning MVP and in the last five years, he only didn’t win it when he was hurt and then Ohtani won.

Fantasy Points Leadership

If you play in a points league, there is only one better player than Judge for you to draft. In most points leagues, stolen bases only get 2 points so Judge will pile up points with extra base hits, walks, RBI, runs scored, and epic bombs. If you are lucky enough to get him, you have to take him regardless of the age and injury risks.

Prediction 3: Younger Star Is Better Bet Than Judge

Aaron Judge vs. Juan Soto

Judge is amazing, but will definitely regress even if only slightly. There are a couple of players you can consider if you play SMART, getting your steals in the first round or from your high-dollar players as part of the strategy.

When we look at a possible player that can give you much of what Judge can give, there is only one, Juan Soto. With Soto, you can consider trading batting average for steals with Juan Soto, who will be $8–10 cheaper to get the same 44 home runs but get 35 stolen bases.

Floor vs. Ceiling Comparison

When looking at floor and ceiling we have to consider age and injury history. Judge is 33 with an injury history that has question marks. He will likely play in 100 games regardless of injuries.

Floor for Judge:
.295 batting average, 30 home runs, 70 runs batted in, 75 runs scored, and 3 stolen bases.

Ceiling for Judge:
.295 batting average, 44 home runs, 115 runs batted in, 128 runs scored, and 8 stolen bases.

Now, let’s project Soto. Soto is not in Yankee Stadium and for left-handed hitters, Citi Field is average. He is in a great lineup protected by Francisco Lindor before him and Bo Bichette after him, who strikes out way less than the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso. That should give him plenty of chances to run. His expected batting average was .279 last season so he likely hits .275. He is 27 years old and has had three straight full seasons.

Floor for Soto:
.275 batting average, 25 home runs, 65 runs batted in, 70 runs scored, and 15 stolen bases.

Ceiling for Soto:
.275 batting average, 45 home runs, 115 runs batted in, 135 runs scored, and 38 stolen bases.

Prediction 4: Judge’s ADP Will Be 2.0, Despite 2025 Risk

Draft Position & Value

Every league will want to have Aaron Judge because he can change so many things. In auction drafts, there is a difference, as spending $50 of your $260 can really tie you up, and getting a more balanced team can make your season not be ruined should Judge get injured.

Judge will go second after Ohtani in almost all leagues except when fantasy players get cute for the position of Bobby Witt Jr. or the stolen base prowess of Juan Soto.

Trade & Hold Advice

It is impossible to anticipate injuries so this is moot. I only put it here so that people will think about it. This is not a strategy for Aaron Judge. If he is not hurt you keep him. If he is hurt, he is not tradeable.

Category & Points League Fit

As we noted, Aaron Judge has a dominant presence in fantasy points leagues and as much in category leagues where you need home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored every week. Buy with confidence.

Prediction 5: Aaron Judge Will Get 100+ DH At Bats

Now this is a cheat code really. Giancarlo Stanton is the everyday DH for the New York Yankees. His injury history is so bad. I mean, look at the schedule and see the first time he plays versus the Twins. If he looks at Byron Buxton, they both likely hit the IL.

So, because of that and the age of Aaron Judge, he will be the DH when Stanton is not and that will be at least 100 at bats.

Conclusion

Sometimes when you start writing on a subject, you know what the conclusion is. When I started this one, it was crystal clear that the conclusion would be to draft Aaron Judge with confidence as the second player and to roster him in auction leagues.

However, when looking at a lot of other players for this, I obviously like Ohtani better, but I also like Juan Soto to continue his rise. Last prediction: Soto finishes second in the NL MVP voting and only because the greatest player of all time is in the National League too.

Keep learning. Keep looking. You never know when you will be surprised.

All Rise. Baseball is Life.

People Also Ask

Is Aaron Judge a safe first-round pick in 2026?
Yes, safest elite power source.

Will Judge hit 50 HR again in 2026?
Strong chance with full health.

Judge vs. Witt Jr. fantasy 2026?
Judge safer power; Witt better speed.

Judge injury risk 2026?
Lower after full recovery.

Best draft spot for Judge 2026?
First round for power security.

Yankees lineup impact on Judge's fantasy?
Elite support boosts RBI and runs scored.