All Signs Pointing To Phillies Getting High-End Version of Max Kepler This Season

The Philadelphia Phillies made one offseason addition to their outfield unit; Max Kepler.

He wasn't the left-handed slugger many wanted since Juan Soto signed with the New York Mets. But the upside of what the German-born outfielder can bring to this team was enough for Dave Dombrowski to take a chance on him.

What Kepler was going to bring to the table wasn't known.

When he's right, he has produced two seasons with OPS+ figures that are 20 points or more than the league average, hitting 36 homers in 2019 and 24 in 2023 during those two years.

But for the most part, Kepler has been a below average hitter, putting up an OPS+ number that's below 100 in six out of his eight full campaigns.

The Phillies are banking on him to be the version of himself from the 2023 season, hoping he can turn back the clock and perform at the level he did in 2019.

While he may not reach that peak this year, and while his current stats don't seem like he is playing to an elite degree, all signs are pointing to Philadelphia getting the high-end version of Kepler this season.

For one, the underlying metrics suggest his numbers should be better than what they are.

Slashing .245/.333/.377 before Wednesday's game, his expected batting average is .300 with his expected slugging percentage at .423.

His on-base percentage is also similar to what he did in 2019 and 2023, with those figures being .336 and .332, respectively, while his current walk rate of 11.7% is the highest of his career.

Not to mention his hard hit percentage is 46.5% so far this year, eclipsing the 40% mark for just the fourth time ever with the other three coming during those 2019 and 2023 campaigns, and during the 2021 season, as well, when he hit 19 homers.

All those advanced stats signal a boom could be coming for Kepler.

What he needs to work on is getting the ball in the air.

His ground ball rate of 51.2% is easily the highest of his career, while his fly ball percentage of 27.9% is his lowest ever.

However, it should be pointed out that Kepler changed his swing this offseason.

The Phillies worked with him on a new batting stance and placing his bat in a different spot prior to a pitch being delivered. That takes some adjustment, and it's something that has effected his performance at the plate in both a positive and negative way.

If Kepler can start elevating the ball with his current hard hit rate staying the same, he is going to have a monster showing this year.

While that's not guaranteed and there is still plenty of baseball left to be played that could cause all of his underlying metrics to crater, what he's done thus far from that standpoint suggests he is going to be the elite outfielder this team has been searching for the past couple seasons.