American League report: Blue Jays’ magic number down to four

The Toronto Blue Jays have officially clinched a postseason berth, but their work isn’t done yet as they have their eyes on finishing first in the American League East.

Until the end of the season, we’ll take a daily look at the happenings among the other potential playoff teams in the American League. We’ll look at how the games went the night before, the Blue Jays’ clinching scenario (until everything is decided), and the slate of coming games.

Let’s take a look at what happened on Sunday, as there were no important games on Monday.

Scores

Coming into Sunday’s game, all the Blue Jays needed to do to book their ticket to the 2025 postseason was win. They did just that with an 8-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals. The victory also maintained their two-game lead over the New York Yankees, albeit with the tiebreaker, so three games.

It looked as if the Baltimore Orioles had a chance to beat the Yankees, taking a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the fifth. Unfortunately, the Yankees tied it the next time they were up, and before extra innings, both teams had opportunities to score runs. Neither team scored until the top of the 10th, when the Yankees put up a six-spot in a 7-1 victory.

Sticking with the American League East, the Boston Red Sox had a slim chance to win the division entering Sunday, and it got even slimmer as they fell 7-3 to the Tampa Bay Rays. More on that in the Blue Jays’ clinching scenario.

The Seattle Mariners are the only other team in the American League with a realistic chance to catch the Blue Jays. They completed the sweep of the Houston Astros with a 7-3 victory on Sunday. It’s looking as if the Mariners and whoever wins the American League East will have the two byes.

As for the American League Central, the Detroit Tigers’ losing streak reached six games, as they fell 6-2 to the Atlanta Braves on Sunday. They received a fortunate result in Minnesota, as the Twins finally put an end to the Cleveland Guardians’ win streak. The Tigers cling to the division lead by just one game.

Blue Jays’ clinching scenario

So what does this mean for the Blue Jays’ clinching scenario? Returning to Toronto for the remaining six games, the Jays control their own destiny if they go 4-2. Four wins give them the division and the best record in the American League, also known as home-field advantage until the World Series.

Although it’s technically possible that the Yankees could surpass them if the Jays go 3-3, they would have to win out their remaining games to do so. That said, it’s a possibility for the Yankees as they play the Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles at home for their last six games.

A 2-4 record over their last six games opens the door for the Mariners to pass them for the best record in the league, but the American League West team would need to win out. Still, it would cause problems for the Jays, as they’d need the Yankees to go 4-2, which doesn’t seem realistic given their schedule.

The only way that the Red Sox, Astros, Guardians, and Tigers could surpass the Blue Jays for the best record in the American League is if the Blue Jays lose their remaining six games and those four teams win out their last six games. For all intents and purposes, all four of those teams are out of the race. It’s also worth noting that one more Blue Jays victory would clinch home-field advantage in the first series of the postseason. Whether that is the Divisional Series or the Wild Card Series is unknown.

Tuesday’s slate of games

This season, the Blue Jays are 50-25 at home, the best home record in the league. Coincidentally, the .666 win percentage is what they need to clinch the American League East. They begin that journey as they welcome the Boston Red Sox for a three-game series at Rogers Centre beginning on Tuesday. The Red Sox are a desperate team, as their spot in the postseason is up for grabs. They’ll have Lucas Giolito starting on Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET against Kevin Gausman.

Like the Blue Jays, the Yankees return home for their remaining six games, albeit with a far easier schedule. They welcome the Chicago White Sox for a three-game series beginning on Tuesday. That game has a 7:05 PM ET start time, with Luis Gil on the mound for the Yankees.

The Jays and Red Sox game isn’t the only important intradivision matchup for the seven potential playoff teams. Starting Tuesday, the Guardians and Tigers begin a three-game series, and Tuesday’s game is going to be a pitching duel. Starting for the Tigers is Tarik Skubal, while Gavin Williams is set to go for the Guardians. That game has a 6:40 PM ET start time.

It’ll be three easy games for the Mariners, as they take on the 43-113 Colorado Rockies for a three-game series in Seattle. Anything less than a sweep would be a subpar result for the Mariners, as they play a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers to end their season.  That game has a start time of 9:40 PM ET.

The Astros need help from the Rockies. They’re now three games behind the Mariners, with the Mariners also owning the tiebreaker. Two wins from the Mariners would clinch the division, which would be just the second time since 2017 that the Astros didn’t finish first in the American League West. Even then, that was during the pandemic season in 2020, when the Athletics won the division.

Funnily enough, the Astros begin a three-game series against those Athletics in Sacramento, with a start time of 10:05 PM ET.