This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into 2024 Spring Training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own, and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Right-handed reliever Peter Strzelecki was a deadline addition to the D-backs in 2023. Arizona sent the struggling left-hander Andrew Chafin over to Milwaukee in exchange for Strzelecki, whose ceiling looks to be decently high.
Strzelecki has only pitched 72 career major league innings, but has a couple of solid stat lines across his previous two years. He appeared in 36 games for the Brewers, and after an incredible 0.71 ERA April, saw a couple of blowup outings spike his numbers.
After being sent over to Arizona, he only saw one game of major league action, where he pitched 1 1/3 scoreless innings in the second game of a double-header against the San Diego Padres.
However, Strzelecki struggled to an ERA north of 8.00 in Triple-A Reno, a hitter friendly environment. There likely won't be a huge role for the right-hander in 2024 due to a solidified Arizona bullpen, but could see some action in the event of injuries or unforeseen bullpen usage.
The Projection
Strzelecki's 2024 doesn't appear to be much. Our playing time projections have him pitching just 10 innings for the D-backs. However, his ERA and strikeout numbers appear to remain relatively the same.
He is expected to regress a bit in the walk department, but the biggest dip appears to be with regards to his FIP, which is projected to be a career high and mirror his ERA, as well as his home runs per nine, which is expected to skyrocket above 1.00.
He isn't in line for enough playing time to be worth much in the WAR department, and his other numbers will generally stick around the same percentage rates as 2023.
Why Strzelecki might outperform this projection
Strzelecki is another example of numbers looking worse due to a few bad outings. He only pitched 35 2/3 innings with Milwaukee, but was generally decent outside a few very poor performances. He strung together an exceptional April, and allowed just one run over the course of his first 13 2/3 innings.
Strzelecki has been able to pitch to decent strikeout numbers, with a 9.00 K/9, and did a solid job of decreasing his walk rate in 2023. He sported a sub 3.00 BB/9, and a 37/12 K/BB.
He was solid at limiting hard contact, and only allowed 0.7 home runs per nine. His four-seamer, sinker, slider and changeup offer relative diversity in his arsenal, and he's had a positive run value on most of his pitches for all of his major league action.
Although not expected to be a huge part of Arizona's bullpen, a strong spring showing could allow him to take on a bigger workload, and he clearly has the stuff to string together some good outings and outperform moderate numbers.
Why Strzelecki might underperform this projection
The right-hander has a tough path to an expanded role, with plenty of competition ahead of him and three right-handers who are already late-inning locks.
There is a world in which he is able to see the field, but he's only ever pitched just over one inning with the D-backs, and he allowed a hit, two walks and struck out zero batters.
Of course, a sample size that small isn't enough to pronounce judgment on Strzelecki, but he did struggle heavily with the D-backs organization in 13 Triple-A games. Although his major league walk rate decreased significantly with Milwaukee, it reared its head in his Reno outings, as he walked 16 batters in just 14 1/3 innings, matching his 16 strikeouts in that period.
While opponents didn't seem to hit him hard or frequently, his control was a major issue. While that can generally be a characteristic of hard-throwing relievers, Strzelecki's velocity was nothing special, topping out at around 92MPH on his four-seamer and sinker.
While his arsenal is solid, his control and walk rate could be a major issue in any major league action he might face, which could lead to nearly zero opportunity to stay on Arizona's roster, and inflate his numbers if a few rough outings occur.
Summary
There isn't a high likelihood Strzelecki gets a large opportunity with the D-backs this year. Although he's pitched a couple of solid seasons, the projections expect an average at best stat line. Although he has shown the ability to string together great outings, it will take a great deal of improvement and a strong spring showing to overcome his walk issue and make his case to be a legitimate contributor to Arizona's relief corp.
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