Andrew Abbott Looks Like an Ace But One Stat Suggests Otherwise

The Cincinnati Reds have gotten amazing pitching from Andrew Abbott so far this year. Now that we are 97 games into the campaign, there are some trends we can trust, and one of them is concerning.

The first trend with Abbott that we can trust is his command. Abbott has cut his walk rate each year he’s pitched, but this year it’s dramatic. 

He has a walks-per-nine rate of 2.36 which is down from 3.39 a year ago. That’s slightly over a walk per nine and when you consider percentages, he is walking just 6.5% of the batters he faces. That is almost 2% lower than the league average rate.

Another impressive area of growth for him has been hard-hit rate. In his rookie year, opposing batters had a hard-hit rate of 42.5% against Abbott. Now they are managing to do it only 33% of the time. The league average for this is 36.8%!

The one thing to be concerned about is the fly ball percentage. There are some teams that are employing a strategy of acquiring fly ball pitchers as they believe the vast majority of fly balls turn into outs. Those teams don’t play at Great American Ballpark.

On top of the fact that Abbott’s ground ball rate is only 30%, his fly ball to home run ratio is just 8%. That is 3% below the league average pitcher and points to a bit of luck in his game.

Pitchers with that statistical profile do eventually fall on hard times at Great American Ballpark. Abbott’s command and his overall growth in confidence on the mound may be enough to subvert that, but numbers rarely lie.

I believe Abbott can maintain his ace-like performances, but it is worth noting that there is some luck involved in his current stats.