Another NPB star is set to be posted for MLB teams this offseason

The Seibu Lions have agreed to post right-hander Kona Takahashi for Major League teams this winter, according to a report from Nikkai Sports. Takahashi turns 29 in February, and he has a 2.95 ERA, 13.8% strikeout rate, and 6.9% walk rate over 116 innings and 19 starts for the Lions this season, which is his 11th campaign in Nippon Professional Baseball.

The numbers reflect something of a bounce-back for Takahashi, who had a 3.87 ERA over 81 1/3 frames in 2024 and a rather glaring 0-11 record.  Even with the caveat that win-loss records aren’t the best indicator of performance, it was a far cry from the form that saw Takahashi deliver a 2.20 ERA during the 2022-23 seasons, as his tough year included a drop in velocity and even some time in the Japanese minor leagues.

Takahashi first expressed an interest in coming to MLB after his big 2022 campaign, and though he has appeared in each of the last 11 NPB seasons, he still hasn’t amassed the full nine years of service time necessary for full free agency.  The Lions have nevertheless agreed to let Takahashi search for a Major League team a bit early, and landing a contract would allow the Lions to gain some money via a posting fee.

Once an NPB player is posted, he has 45 days to work out a deal with a Major League club.  If no agreement is reached, the player returns to his Nippon Professional Baseball club for the next season and can’t be posted again until the following winter.  If a deal is reached, the player’s original NPB club earns a posting fee depending on the size of his MLB contract.  Should the player sign a big league deal worth $25MM or less in guaranteed money, the NPB team will receive 20 percent of the total guarantee.  If the player signs a minor league deal, the NPB team will get 25 percent of the signing bonus, plus a later supplemental free agent if the player is added to the MLB team’s active roster.

It seems likely that any contract Takahashi lands will be within the lower ranges of the posting system, as the Yakyu Cosmopolitan writes that Takahashi’s “market will be similar to” that of Shinnosuke Ogasawara or Naoyuki Uwasawa.  Ogasawara signed a two-year, $3.5M contract with the Nationals last January after being posted by the Chunichi Dragons, and Uwasawa signed a non-guaranteed split contract with the Rays in January 2024 after the Nippon Ham Fighters posted the right-hander.

Takahashi has solid control but isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher, as his 20% strikeout rate from the 2020 season (over 120 1/3 innings) is his career high in Japan.  MLB teams may be looking at him more as a reliever or a swingman than as a rotation candidate, but the ever-present need for pitching means that Takahashi has a solid chance of landing some deal to get to the majors in 2026.  The Nikkai report indicates that evaluators from the Los Angeles Angels, Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals, Seattle Mariners, and Texas Rangers recently scouted one of Takahashi’s starts, so the right-hander is getting at least some due diligence interest from a range of teams.