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Houston Astros right fielder Zach Cole (16) is congratulated by Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3, left) after hitting a two run home run to right field against the Texas Rangers during the fifth inning at Daikin Park. Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Astros Magic Numbers and Scenarios Clear to Claim AL Wild Card Berth

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI
By Matt Postins | Last updated Sep 23, 2025 9:00 AM ET

The Houston Astros have six games remaining. Those games stand between them and seeing an end to their eight-year playoff streak.

A streak that started in 2017, when the Astros won the World Series for the first time, saw them win seven division titles, including the last four, along with four American League pennants and two World Series crowns. The division streak is all but done after this weekend’s disastrous series with the Seattle Marinres.

Houston (84-72) is now three games behind Seattle (87-69) and barring a horrible collapse by the Mariners, they will win the division. Seattle’s magic number to clinch the division title is four, which includes Mariners wins or Astros losses. Just a week ago, the Astros were in the driver’s seat in the division. Now, their only realistic pathway to the playoffs — and the extend their streak to nine straight postseasons — is to claim an AL wild card berth.

Here is how it must play out.

Houston’s Playoff Math

Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees (88-68) have a three-game lead on the field for the top wild card berth. The Yankees are still on the hunt for the AL East title, two games behind Toronto (90-66). But the Blue Jays clinched a playoff berth on Sunday. Even if New York catches Toronto, the Blue Jays are in.

The Astros are fighting with two other teams for the remaining two wild card berths — the Boston Red Sox (85-71) and the Cleveland Guardians (84-72). Boston has a one-game lead on the two teams. Both also have an ace in the hole when it comes to tie with Houston. Each won its season series over the Astros. Houston cannot end up in a tie.

So, when it comes to catching Boston, the Astros must win two more games than Boston. For instance, if the Red Sox go 3-3 in the final six games, then the Astros must go 5-1 to clinch a berth. Since Houston and Cleveland are tied for the final berth, the Astros only need one more win than Cleveland. Using the same example, if Cleveland goes 3-3 then Houston must go 4-2.

There is another wrinkle. Cleveland is one game back of the Detroit Tigers (85-71) in the AL Central and faces them in a three-game series that starts on Tuesday. If the Guardians catch the Tigers and win the division, then Detroit would fall into the wild card race. So how does that tiebreaker look? The Astros lost that season series, too.

In every realistic scenario, the Astros will need to win two more games than Boston, or one more game than Cleveland or Detroit, to clinch a wild card berth. Anything less won’t cover it. So, yes, this final road trip to the Athletics and to the Los Angeles Angels means everything.