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Astros Unsurprisingly Predicted To Allow Homegrown Star To Depart in Free Agency

Originally posted on Houston Astros on SI
By Kenneth Teape | Last updated Sep 7, 2025 4:00 PM ET

The Houston Astros just went through a rough offseason when it came to figuring out what to do with some of their homegrown starts.

Third baseman Alex Bregman was a free agent and Kyle Tucker was under team control for only one more year. Both ended up not returning to the club. Bregman signed a deal with the Boston Red Sox while Tucker was traded to the Chicago Cubs.

This offseason, the Astros are going to face another difficult decision with yet another homegrown star. Their ace, Framber Valdez, is set to hit the open market and be arguably the best starting pitcher available this winter. Despite his recent bizarre cross-up situation with catcher Cesar Salazar, he is expected to still get paid this offseason.

However, it will more than likely come from another team. Houston’s starting pitching outlook is certainly shaky. Hayden Wesneski and Ronel Blanco’s availability for 2026 is up in the air after both had to undergo Tommy John surgery this year. Spencer Arrighetti is also dealing with an elbow ailment that will cut his campaign short.

Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. all returned from significant injuries this year. It was not surprising that the Astros were linked to controllable starting pitchers ahead of the MLB trade deadline. The uncertainty surrounding their players returning from injury and the future of Valdez being unknown were major reasons why.

Framber Valdez Predicted To Leave Astros in Free Agency

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From how things look currently, keeping Valdez in the fold would seemingly be the team’s No. 1 priority this winter. However, they could very well be turning their attention elsewhere. Tim Kelly of Bleacher Report recently made predictions about how things would turn out with each team’s top free agent this winter. For Valdez, a prediction has been made to move on.

“Certainly, Houston would like to keep Valdez, who has a 3.18 ERA and two complete games over 26 starts this season. But recent history tells us they are more likely to let another team pay him over $100 million heading into his age-32 season in free agency,” he wrote.

Paying that much money to players of that age hasn’t been something the franchise has ever done. It is what The Athletic's Chandler Rome (subscription required) cited when also discussing the team's ace. When it comes to starting pitchers, the likelihood of a long-term deal being reached drops even more. Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander all departed the team at different points when they hit free agency.

Cole was the only one who was younger than Valdez when he hit free agency. Age almost certainly played a part in the team not committing to the other players and could factor into the decision once again. As the top pitcher on the market, a bidding war could certainly ensue, driving his price up even more.

Not overly reliant on raw stuff, Valdez has a game that should age gracefully. He generates a ton of ground balls and excels at inducing soft contact. His production has been incredibly consistent and he has had success in October as well. Those are all things working in his favor that should outweigh his age.

For Houston, it is easy to see why they would move on despite the need for more starting pitching. If they are going to commit to a pitcher with a long-term deal, getting an extension done with Hunter Brown makes a lot of sense.