Athletics at Blue Jays: Player Prop Breakdown

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated May 31, 2025 11:50 AM ET

After a rather encouraging start to Gunnar Hoglund's MLB career (2GS; 11.1 IP, 3 ER, 10 K, 1 BB), things quickly spun off the rails for the A's 25-year-old righty. Sacramento's highly touted rookie SP prospect surrendered 12 earned runs in three games since, with just 10 strikeouts to eight walks and five ding-dongs allowed.

The recent command issues dropped his disciplinary metrics for the season precipitously, taking the whole ship down with them. Led by an inability to get ahead (56.7% First Strike) or induce chases when needed (26.2% O-Swing), Hoglund's been forced into the zone with a very hittable +93 mph four-seamer (90 Stuff+).

The result? Opposing hitters boast a .657 xSLG against the heater with 4 XBH (3 HR) in just 43 batted ball events. In fact, his fastball's only one of four separate offerings averaging a +.528 xSLG! It's impossible to find success in the bigs when well beyond two-thirds of your arsenal gets obliterated regularly.

On the flipside, Toronto's been incredible over their last 275 plate appearances...

9 Home Runs (Leads MLB)
.268 BA
.791 OPS
13.0% K : 12.7% BB
45.6% Hard Hit Rate
11.3% Barrel
.348 wOBA
128 wRC+

Give me Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to flip his recent bad luck on it head. Despite hitting just .195 over his last 50 PA vs RHP, that .167 BABIP's doing a ton of heavy lifting, considering the insane underpinning power metrics in that timeframe — 84.0% Contact, 57.9% Hard Hit, 18.4% Barrel, .437 xwOBA. Yea, that'll play...

I've been a little conservative in my betting lately with so much personal stuff going on but I'm 100% getting cash down on VLADIMIR GUERERRO JR. OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+100) on MGM.

TOTAL BASE TIP:

Important Note: Before endeavoring into total base props, first things first — REMEMBER, WALKS DO NOT COUNT! It always kills me whenever confusion occurs due to not understanding the rules after a loss. There's always (at least) one person in my social media DMs completely befuddled as to how a batter failed to cash a total base prop when they walked four times.

Before placing any wager, please make sure to read the rules.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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