Atlanta Braves Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Atlanta Braves Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA) + SUSP: 45

PENDING FREE AGENTS: 10

OPTIONS: 2; Acuña Jr. (Club, $17M), Albies (Club, $7M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: None

Dylan Lee (4.150): $3,900,000 ($1.7M raise)

The Case: Lee had another strong season, pitching in 71 games and 67 IP with 31 HLD, 0 SV, a 3.09 ERA and 2.15 FIP.

Tyler Duffey (2021, $1.6M raise) provides the floor as he trails both Lee and Luke Jackson (2021, $1.7M raise) in holds. Jackson is the best comparison, also finishing with 31 HLD in similar 63.2 IP. I project the same $1.7M raise as Jackson, resulting in a $3.9M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Lee will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

James Karinchak (4.128): $890,000 ($50k raise)

The Case: Karinchak signed a minor league deal with an $840k Major League rate and only pitched 9.2 IP. Adrian Morejon (2023, $50k raise) is the best comparison, coming from an $800k previous salary before receiving a $50k raise after throwing 9 IP and ending the season on option, like Karinchak. Karinchak gets the same $50k raise, resulting in an $890k total salary.

Tender Prediction: I would expect Karinchak to be DFA’d/non-tendered. He has no options left and was only used for 9.2 IP despite being with the Braves the entire season. He will likely be in the minor league free agent market, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he returned to Atlanta on a minor league deal after finding some success with the organization. Non-Tender.

Joey Wentz (3.166): $900,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Joey Wentz missed the entire 2026 season with injury. Dillon Tate (2023, $0 raise) also missed his entire platform season and received the same exact salary the following season.

The club has the ability to reduce salary under the maximum salary reduction rules, but there is enough precedent for a player who missed the entire season to just repeat his previous salary. I do not expect the club to cut Joey Wentz’s salary and project a $0 raise, resulting in a $900K total salary.

Tender Prediction: A pre-tender deal likely gets done, assuming there are no major medical red flags. $900K for a pitcher with the ability to start or be used in the bullpen is good value. Wentz is out of options, but he would stay within the organization if he clears waivers or would have to forfeit his salary.

The Braves should have the 40-man space to hold him, and I believe the best path is to sign a pre-tender deal and have the ability to attempt to pass him through waivers if roster space is needed at a later time. Pre-Tender.

Michael Grove (3.122): $1,430,000 ($30k raise from ML rate)

The Case: Grove elected free agency after being outrighted at the end of 2025 and signed with the Rays while finishing his injury rehab. His deal was a split deal with a $1.4M Major League base and contains a maximum salary reduction provision even though he did not earn the full $1.4M in 2026.

With only seven games pitched, this is a small raise case applied to the $1.4M Major League rate rather than his actual 2026 earnings. I project a $30k increase over that ML rate, resulting in a $1.43M total salary.

Tender Prediction: This smells like a pre-tender signing due to the late September waiver claim with no expectation for Grove to affect the Major League team. The elevated $1.4M salary in his split deal in 2026 adds a twist, but the Braves must have some sort of plan in place when they claimed him.

Grove could be an “over-tender” candidate, giving him a higher salary than he is worth while allowing them to try and pass him through waivers to build depth off the 40-man, though I do not see the Braves being in a very desperate roster crunch situation. Pre-Tender.

Luke Williams (3.070): $850,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Williams agreed to a split deal in 2026 that paid him at an $850k rate in the Majors. Williams took just 1 PA before being removed from the roster during the regular season. He was added back for the postseason as a bench player. Williams should receive a $0 raise from his Major League rate last season, resulting in an $850k total salary.

Tender Prediction: With Dubon and Kim becoming free agents, I expect the Braves to once again offer Williams a pre-tender split deal. Pre-Tender.

Bryce Elder (3.069): $3,650,000

The Case: Elder is an interesting case due to the amount of career bulk he has accumulated, throwing 583.2 career IP across five seasons with a 4.46 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 105 games (104 GS) with 51 quality starts. I believe the 583.2 IP would actually be the second-highest total in this Arb-1 SP market over the last 10 years or so.

The highest is José Berríos (2019, $4.025M total salary), who on the surface is very comparable to Elder with 104 games (103 GS) and exactly 51 quality starts like Elder in his slightly higher 596.2 IP, throwing to a 4.21 ERA / 4.10 FIP. However, Berríos was a 2x All-Star with a platform year of over 200 IP, which creates a firm ceiling for Elder.

There are a lot of older comps since SPs went deeper into games back in the day, but I think they are relevant here with the rare profile of Elder in today’s game. Those comps are Colin McHugh (2016, $3.85M total salary) and Jimmy Nelson (2017, $3.7M total salary). McHugh made 99 starts in 105 games for 590.1 IP, pitching to a 4.13 ERA with 62 QS, while Nelson made 104 starts in 109 games for 611.1 IP, pitching to a 4.12 ERA with 49 QS. This is clearly where Elder slots into this market.

I give McHugh and Nelson a slight edge since they pitched qualifying seasons in their platform years, whereas Elder fell short, throwing 149 IP. Elder slots in at a $3.65M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Elder will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.