Blue Jays: Four X-factors that could decide the ALCS

Toronto will have to find ways to set the tone of the series at Rogers Centre because the Mariners won a series here earlier this season. The Blue Jays did make up for it by sweeping the Mariners in May at T-Mobile Park, but Seattle owns the season record. Based on this regular-season record, there may be a chance where road teams win all games, but winning at home for both teams will be much more advantageous and less nerve-racking. Whoever wins more home games has a better chance of heading to the World Series – this home-field advantage may hold the ultimate key to this crucial series.

Defence

There’s nothing more than clean defence that saves a team from trouble. Playing good defence has been consistently underrated this postseason, with great pitching and offensive highlights throughout each series. But in some cases, at least a couple of teams were able to win because they made fewer defensive errors than their opponents.

Think about what just happened in the NLDS featuring the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Phillies made one crucial defensive mistake that cost them their playoff destiny, and the Dodgers fully benefited from this unfortunate incident.

The Blue Jays also took advantage of the New York Yankees’ shaky-at-best defence in the ALDS, even though the team uncharacteristically lost Game 3 to poor defensive performance and costly errors. According to Fielding Bible, Toronto ranks fourth in defensive runs saved, while the Mariners rank 18th. The Blue Jays also feature some of the better defensive players, such as Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez, Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw and Daulton Varsho. Most of these players helped the team save runs and hits in the ALDS, and the Blue Jays will have to witness defensive clinics once again to earn an advantage in this longer playoff series.

The Mariners’ defence isn’t quite up to par with the Blue Jays – this series will be all about how the Blue Jays go about establishing their defensive edge first.

Starting pitching

Technically, the Mariners have a much more stable starting rotation with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (if he is healthy and good to go). Seattle ranked sixth in the American League with a 3.87 ERA during the regular season, compared to the Blue Jays, who ranked 10th with a 4.19 ERA. This isn’t much of a surprise since Seattle has always had a stronger pitching staff in the past few years, and the chief reason why the team was competitive in the years when they could secure a spot in the postseason.

The Blue Jays have had a roller coaster of a starting pitching staff this year, unlike the Mariners. The core featuring Chris Bassitt, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer have had their shares of ups and downs throughout their outings, with Gausman showing sharper performances more consistently out of all starters. Managing this core will be much easier with the addition of sensational rookie Trey Yesavage as one of the dependable starters.

Seattle will also have some challenges navigating starting pitching with most of their pitching staff on short rest. ALCS Game 1 starter, Bryce Miller, will be starting on a three-day rest, which should add more advantage to the Blue Jays in theory, on top of the Jays getting to Miller earlier this season.

The Blue Jays’ lineup will have to find ways to get to Seattle’s starting rotation if they want a shot at winning more games.

Cal Raleigh vs the Blue Jays’ pitching staff

If you weren’t aware, Mariners’ starting catcher Cal Raleigh has been chasing history this season.

This regular season, Raleigh slashed .247/.359/.589 with 60 home runs, breaking the single-season home run record for backstops.. His slashline of .381/.480/.571 with four RBIs also helped him stand out as one of the better offensive performers in the 2025 playoffs.

Raleigh is a Blue Jay-killer with a .274 BA, 10 home runs and 20 RBIs in 24 games against Toronto throughout his career. With Seattle’s playoff bid being extended with this ALCS run, the 28-year-old catcher will still be looking to improve his batting record. Out of all starters, Gausman will have to develop a stronger game plan against Raleigh, given that he went 5-12 with three home runs and three RBIs in 13 plate appearances.

The Seattle catcher is a good overall hitter who can be patient at the plate. Even though some of the starters like Bassitt, Bieber and Scherzer haven’t given up any earned runs to Raleigh, he will still be a threat for the six or seven-game series to the entire Blue Jays’ pitching staff, not just the starters. Make one mistake pitch to Raleigh, and Toronto might be a part of the lore of his legendary season.