Blue Jays free agent target: Clay Holmes

What a ride it’s been for Clay Holmes over the past few years.

It’s easy to forget he was the former closer for the New York Yankees many moons ago, but he relinquished the role in late 2024, having led all relievers with 13 blown saves that season. Holmes redeemed himself in the postseason, but it was too little, too late in the eyes of some Yankee fans.

Holmes’ four-year tenure with the Yankees may have ended on a sour note, but he was ready to begin the next chapter of his career in a totally different role. The right-hander re-entered the market and landed a deal with the New York Mets as a starting pitcher for three years and $38 million.

During his first full season as a starting pitcher, Holmes had a solid season in Queens, posting a 3.53 ERA in 33 starts for the Metropolitans.

Given the recent success he’s had as a starter, it’s easy to forget how Holmes was removed from the closer’s role with the Yankees just a few years ago, and now he’s blossomed into an intriguing option as a starting pitcher: one who may be of keen interest to the Toronto Blue Jays as they look to replace innings left behind by Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber.

2026 Season Stats

Coming off a decent 1.9 fWAR season with the Mets in 2025, Holmes was looking to build his resume in case he decided to pull the ripcord on his player option and enter free agency at the end of 2026.

Holmes suffered a fractured right fibula after he was hit by a comebacker during a start on May 15, and the initial diagnosis from Mets manager Carlos Mendoza was that Holmes would “be down for a long time.” Despite the injury, Holmes continued to rehab but was traded to the Chicago Cubs while on the injured list.

He started four games down the stretch, with an ERA of 4.25 and a strikeout rate of 16.2%. Along with Kevin Gausman, Holmes fortified Chicago’s starting rotation, but neither could find his footing once they donned Cubbie blue.

However, a little grace should be given to a guy like Holmes, who was working his way back from a significant injury, similar to the one Roy Halladay suffered in 2005, when a comebacker broke his leg and ended his season.

The fact that Holmes returned for the stretch run was a Hail Mary of sorts for the Cubs, not unlike the Blue Jays’ acquisition of Bieber at the 2025 trade deadline.

Until his freak leg injury, Holmes was cruising through the first part of the schedule, rocking a 2.39 ERA and 20.9% strikeout rate with the Mets through his first nine starts of the season, four of them being quality starts.

Armed with his signature sinker, Holmes is one of the best in the game at inducing ground balls. His 60.8% ground ball rate ranked in Baseball Savant’s 99th percentile among starting pitchers in 2026. The run value on that pitch alone is reason enough to see why the Mets took a gamble on Holmes to see if he could unlock that pitch’s potential as a starter.

Is Holmes a good fit for the Blue Jays?

The Blue Jays have at least one spot available in their starting rotation, so why wouldn’t Holmes be a fit in Toronto? Of all the starting pitchers in free agency, he has the smallest body of work as a starter, with just 53 career games started under his belt.

Although he’s experienced success in the rotation, there are still real questions about his ability to ride out a full season more than once in his career. Steamer projections put Holmes at 28 games started and 154 innings pitched next year, which any team would gladly take.

Spotrac puts Holmes’ market value at two years and $27.7 million, while MLB Trade Rumors predicts Holmes will sign for three years and $45 million. Meanwhile, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN forecasts Holmes to sign a two-year, $35 million contract. Holmes would be a gamble, but at those prices, he might be one of the most underrated starting pitchers on the market.

While other free agent starters like Sonny Gray are more well-known commodities, Holmes has plenty of upside to work with and could slot in as a No. 2 starter on a contending team.

As a big ground ball guy, Holmes’ stuff plays better with a solid defensive team behind him, and having one of MLB’s best defenders in Andres Gimenez (who was second in the American League with a 16 Fielding Run Value), that would be an ideal way for the Blue Jays to utilize the skill set of Holmes and his sinker.

A team like the Blue Jays may have to come over the top with a three-year deal to sign a player of Holmes’ ilk, but watching from afar how Dylan Cease was able to take his game to the next level should be enticing for a starter like Holmes, who is hoping to solidify himself as a top-tier starter.

There’s a lot of talent in the Blue Jays starting pitching pool right now, and whether credit goes to pitching coach Pete Walker, assistant coach Sam Greene, or the Blue Jays’ pitching lab as a whole, Toronto is a good place to be if you’re a free agent starting pitcher like Holmes.