Blue Jays secure postseason spot, still chasing AL East crown

One of the drawbacks of being in the AL East is having to face powerhouse squads like the Yankees and Red Sox, and even with the Jays boasting a 90-66 record with just a handful of games to go, they still could finish second in their division. The Yankees are their biggest threat right now, and the following scenarios would see their rivals overtake them in the standings:

• Jays win zero – Yankees need three
• Jays win one – Yankees need four
• Jays win two – Yankees need five
• Jays win three – Yankees need six
• Jays win four – clinch the division

This is all to say that if the Blue Jays continue to win over the next week, it doesn’t matter what the Yankees or Red Sox do in the division. It will help if their opposing teams lose (especially since the Jays face the Red Sox for three games) because it limits what their rivals can do in the standings, but the main takeaway continues to revolve around the Blue Jays winning this next week and taking any possibilities out of the opposing teams’ hands.

By winning the division, the Jays will most likely get a bye because they rank as one of the top two teams in the American League. They would move directly to the ALDS and skip the Wild Card round, whereas second place in the division will have to tread through the first three-game series (something the Blue Jays have struggled with dating back to 2020). The Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros and the Detroit Tigers/Cleveland Guardians would all need outstanding weeks to surpass Toronto in the league standings, so whoever wins the AL East likely earns a bye.

The obvious advantage of skipping the Wild Card is the added rest for not having to take part in the series, as well as eliminating the risk associated with having to take part in the series itself. The Jays have been swept in their last three Wild Card series (Rays in 2020, Mariners in 2022, and Twins in 2023), so the added games in the division series help with eliminating the ‘haven’t won a postseason game since 2016’ narrative.

The Blue Jays could use the rest, considering two key players are currently on the shelf. Bo Bichette and Chris Bassitt are on the IL with a knee and back injury, respectively, and both could be activated in time for the ALDS if they are physically ready to go. Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement, and a handful of others are battling minor ailments as well, which comes with the territory of a 162-game season, so adding some additional rest days would be a benefit for Toronto. This would also go hand in hand with the Jays winning this upcoming week and clinching the division title sooner rather than later, with the club being able to pivot to give some regular players some rest days towards the weekend series.

Clinching a postseason spot is a great accomplishment for a Blue Jays team that threw in the towel last year and had to contend with some key injuries from their offseason acquisitions. However, the likes of Guerrero Jr. and others will tell you that the work isn’t done just yet, and another solid week at the Rogers Centre will go a long way for the club’s postseason aspirations.