Blue Jays: What’s next for Max Scherzer in the rotation?

Max Scherzer is one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history: three Cy Young awards, eight All-Star appearances, 3499 strikeouts — he’s done it all. But Father Time comes for every player eventually, and it appears as if he’s finally come for Scherzer. 

The 41-year-old gave up five runs in the first inning of Friday night’s 8-6 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. He got pulled in the third after allowing two more and having thrown 82 pitches to get seven outs. 

It was Scherzer’s second nightmare outing in his last three starts. His ERA on the season has risen to 9.64. With Trey Yesavage slated to return Tuesday and José Berríos close behind him, Scherzer should be the next guy bumped out of the starting rotation. 

Nothing encouraging is happening under the hood. His expected ERA of 6.11 is abysmal, and opponents are barreling him 11.5% of the time. The velocity on his fastball, which he throws 47% of the time, is down half a mile-per-hour compared to last season.

The erosion of Scherzer’s ability to generate swing-and-misses is the most detrimental development. He’s struck out just 14.7% of the batters he’s faced, way down from a respectable 22.9% rate in 2025. This is attributable to a ghastly 16.3% rate whiff rate that ranks in the 7th percentile. 

While Scherzer’s stuff looks worse than it ever has, it’s his location that has actually gotten worse. His 92 stuff+ is right in line with last year, while his location+ has regressed from 111 to 104. He’s missing his spots more often, and his mistakes are getting hit harder than ever. 

The veteran’s struggles have been most pronounced against left-handed batters. Southpaws have already tagged him for five home runs with a 1.037 OPS—those are Aaron Judge-ian numbers. They recorded a .545 slugging percentage against him last year across a much larger sample size, suggesting this isn’t an early-season outlier. Opponents are stacking their lineups accordingly and reaping the rewards of this matchup. 

Scherzer isn’t giving the Blue Jays enough of a chance to win on the days he starts—or the next, either. He’s failed to complete three innings three times already, which has led to the bullpen being over-worked in games that are usually out of hand. This is untenable for a team dealing with as many pitching injuries as the Blue Jays currently have, and with Patrick Corbin throwing quality innings for the Jays as of late, too. 

A phantom IL stint that allows the team to activate Berríos probably makes the most sense for Scherzer, especially with Eric Lauer already shifting to the bullpen to accommodate Yesavage’s return. This would allow Scherzer to still be around the team, and perhaps come back healthier if needed later this season. His leadership and clubhouse presence are invaluable, even if he isn’t contributing on the field. 

Unfortunately, Scherzer isn’t going to be the first pitcher in history to defy Father Time forever, and that’s okay. He’s a first-ballot Hall of Famer regardless. But right now, he doesn’t belong in the Blue Jays’ rotation with healthier reinforcements on the way.