Boston Red Sox Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Boston Red Sox Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 47

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 3

OPTIONS: Whitlock (Club, $8.25M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: None

TANNER HOUCK (5.100): $4,150,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Houck essentially missed the entire season, pitching only 1 IP.

Walker Buehler (2023, $0 raise) and Lance McCullers (2019, $0 raise) provide the missed-season precedent. I project a $0 raise, keeping Houck at $4.15M.

Tender Prediction: Houck will be tendered a contract. The Red Sox tendered him last season knowing he would miss the majority of the year, and they should have no issue tendering him at the same price now that he is healthy. Tender.

JOHAN OVIEDO (5.079): $1,550,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Oviedo pitched in only one game before suffering an injury. I project a $0 raise, keeping him at $1.55M.

Tender Prediction: Oviedo will be tendered a contract. He was pitching on rehab late in the season, so there should not be major injury concerns affecting the decision. Tender.

ADLEY RUTSCHMAN (5.000): $10,000,000 ($2.75M raise)

The Case: Rutschman posted a 107 wRC+ with 13 HR across 410 PA while missing a little over a month due to injury.

Omar Narváez (2021, $2.5M raise) provides the best historical comparison after totaling 445 PA with 11 HR and a 100 wRC+. The offensive production is very similar, with Rutschman holding slight advantages in power and quality despite fewer PA, while also being the far superior defender. Rutschman’s representatives should also hold significant negotiating leverage after Boston surrendered substantial prospect capital to acquire him. Those advantages should allow Rutschman to clear Narváez’s $2.5M raise, and I project a $2.75M raise resulting in a $10M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Rutschman will be tendered a contract, and with the amount of talent and prospect capital Boston gave up to acquire him, an extension seems likely. Breslow followed a similar path after acquiring Crochet for a hefty prospect package with the full intention of extending him.

Rutschman and his representatives will have a ton of leverage in those negotiations, and I would not be surprised if the number is bigger than expected if an extension gets done. Tender.

JARREN DURAN (4.155): $10,700,000 ($2.925M raise)

The Case: Duran enters arbitration from a $7.775M Arb-2 salary after totaling 608 PA with 20 HR, 21 SB and a 69 wRC+.

Alec Bohm (2025, $2.5M raise) provides the floor after coming from a nearly identical $7.7M salary and posting 504 PA with 11 HR and a 103 wRC+. Bohm holds the clear quality advantage, but Duran’s substantial advantages in playing-time bulk, power and speed should comfortably push him above Bohm’s raise.

Alex Verdugo (2023, $2.9M raise) is the stronger comparison after totaling 602 PA with 13 HR, 54 RBI, 5 SB and a 100 wRC+. Verdugo again holds the quality advantage, but Duran’s additional power and speed give him enough traditional counting-stat value to squeak past Verdugo’s raise. I project a $2.925M raise resulting in a $10.7M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Duran will be tendered a contract. His future with the Red Sox seems bleak and he may ultimately get squeezed out of the roster when everyone is healthy, but the projected $10.7M salary is still tradeable with two years of control remaining. That, coupled with Roman’s continued injury issues, makes a tender the clear move. Tender.

ELI WHITE (4.140): $1,325,000 ($425k raise)

The Case: White totaled 204 PA with 6 HR and an 88 wRC+ while providing strong defense across all three OF spots and value as a pinch runner before ending the season on the IL.

Tommy La Stella (2018, $400k raise) provides the historical floor. Within the current class, David Fry (2026, $425k proj. raise) totals 214 PA with 8 HR and a 93 wRC+ in a similarly limited role. White’s defensive versatility and comparable offensive bulk put him in that same range, and I project a $425K raise resulting in a $1.325M total salary.

Tender Prediction: White is a likely DFA/non-tender. He was used down the stretch primarily for baserunning and positional versatility, and while I would not be surprised to see him back with Boston on a minor-league deal, there is certainly a non-zero chance another club gives him a Major League deal. Non-Tender.

KUTTER CRAWFORD (4.136): $2,750,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Crawford did not pitch during the platform season. I project no raise, keeping him at $2.75M.

Tender Prediction: Crawford should be tendered a contract. He has not pitched since the 2024 season and there are going to be plenty of questions about what he looks like when healthy, but $2.75M is a worthwhile risk for a starting pitcher for a big-market club with multiple years of control. Crawford also still has options remaining and is not yet at 5+ years of Major League service. Tender.

CONNOR WONG (4.079): $1,700,000 ($325k raise)

The Case: Wong stayed healthy all season as Boston’s primary backup catcher and totaled 238 PA.

Reese McGuire (2023, $275K raise) provides the best historical comparison with similarly poor defensive value as a backup, but Wong produced the stronger offensive totals and wRC+. That should push him above McGuire’s raise. Within the current class, Logan O’Hoppe (2026, $275k proj. raise), but Wong’s better offensive quality and O’Hoppe ending the season on option create additional separation. I project a $325K raise resulting in a $1.7M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Wong will be tendered a contract. The Red Sox are comfortable with him handling their pitching staff, and with Rutschman struggling to stay healthy in recent seasons, retaining an experienced backup catcher makes sense. Tender.

ROMY GONZALEZ (4.043): $1,750,000 ($150k raise)

The Case: Gonzalez totaled only 73 PA with a 59 wRC+ while spending 55 days on optional assignment.

Miguel Andújar (2022, $225k raise) provides the absolute ceiling after totaling 140 PA with a 56 wRC+ while spending roughly 90 days on option. Gonzalez had less MLB bulk, despite fewer option days. I project a $150K raise resulting in a $1.75M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Gonzalez is likely a DFA/non-tender. Even with all the injuries in September he was not called up, and he plays positions where the Red Sox already have significant depth. Non-Tender.

TRISTON CASAS (4.032): $1,610,000 ($0 raise)

The Case: Casas missed the entire platform season. I project no raise, keeping him at $1.61M.

Tender Prediction: Casas should be a DFA/non-tender. He has barely played over the past two seasons, and even if healthy I do not see a clean roster fit or a robust enough trade market to justify guaranteeing the salary. Non-Tender.

ANDRUW MONASTERIO (3.099): $1,975,000

The Case: Monasterio enters arbitration alongside David Hamilton after the two were traded for each other last offseason, and they enter the market attached at the hip with Monasterio at 939 career PA’s to Hamilton’s 937 and 347 platform-year PA’s to Hamilton’s 387 while posting an 83 platform-year wRC+ compared to Hamilton’s 84.

Ernie Clement (2024, $1.97M salary) and Tyrone Taylor (2023, $2.025M salary) provide the best historical range as bothare defensive-first players with 800-1,000 career PA’s and without a qualifying season. Taylor amassed 41 career HR’s with a 101 wRC+ across 972 career PA’s, and although he had only 243 platform-year PA’s his slight career bulk and quality advantages over Monasterio acting as the ceiling for Monasterio.

Monasterio’s 87 career wRC+ tops Clement’s 80, which is enough to put him just above the $1.97M level and I project a $1.975M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Monasterio will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GREG WEISSERT (3.079): $1,200,000

The Case: Weissert enters arbitration with 222.1 career IP, a 3.28 ERA and 38 career SV+HLD, including 60.2 IP with a 3.26 ERA and 9 SV+HLD in the platform year. His teammates Erik Miller (2026, $1.45M proj. salary) and Justin Slaten (2026, $1.15M proj. salary) provide the current-class range. Weissert has significant career and platform-year bulk advantages over both, but Miller’s 19 platform-year SV+HLD and Slaten’s 17 are both well ahead of Weissert’s 9. Miller also holds the platform-year quality advantage, keeping Weissert comfortably below him, while Weissert’s significant bulk advantage over Slaten should keep him slightly ahead despite Slaten’s leverage advantage.

John Schreiber (2023, $1.175M salary) is the best lookback comparison after entering arbitration with 143.1 career IP, 43 SV+HLD and a 3.58 ERA while throwing 46.2 IP with 11 SV+HLD and a 3.86 ERA in his platform year. Weissert trails slightly in leverage production but holds significant career and platform-year bulk advantages along with the quality advantage.

Tim Hill (2021, $1.325M salary) provides a ceiling after entering with 163 career IP and 48 SV+HLD while recording 18 SV+HLD in 59.2 platform-year IP. Weissert has the bulk advantage over Hill, but Hill’s significant leverage advantage keeps Weissert below his salary.

Weissert gets just above Schreiber and I project a $1.2M total salary.

Tender Decision: Weissert will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

ZACK KELLY (3.079): $850,000

The Case: Kelly enters arbitration with 131.1 career IP across 115 appearances and 15 HLD but no saves. His platform season was limited to only 16.1 IP across 17 appearances with 3 HLD and a 3.31 ERA, and his career has also included significant time both on option and the IL.

Brock Stewart (2024, $880K salary) is the most obvious ceiling after throwing almost the exact same platform innings at 15.2, but Stewart had 7 HLD in that small sample and entered arbitration with 149 career IP, 16 HLD and 2 SV. Kelly cannot match the platform leverage or career saves.

Gabe Speier (2024, $845K salary) threw 23.2 IP with 7 HLD and no saves in his platform year and entered arbitration with 28 career holds, while J.T. Chargois (2022, $850K salary) also had more career leverage production despite a similarly small platform workload.

Kelly’s better platform quality keeps him around this range, but the missed bulk and lack of saves make it hard to get above it. I project an $850K total salary.

Tender Prediction: Kelly will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

WILYER ABREU (3.041): $3,650,000

The Case: Abreu enters arbitration as a two-time Gold Glove winner with one qualifying season, while his platform year marked his second straight 20+ HR season. He has accumulated 1,630 career PA with 63 HR and a 115 wRC+.

Isaac Paredes (2023, $3.4M salary) and Tyler O’Neill (2021, $3.4M salary) establish the previous ceiling for one-time qualifiers, with both coming off 30+ HR platform seasons and receiving down-ballot MVP votes; O’Neill also had a second Gold Glove. Abreu does not match their peak platform power, but his 1,630 career PA are well above Paredes’ and O’Neill’s roughly 1,250–1,330 PA totals, while his two Gold Gloves add further value. That career bulk is enough to finally break the $3.4M ceiling.

Andy Pages (2026, $3.7M proj. salary) and Jordan Walker (2026, $3.55M proj. salary) are the two strongest current-class comparisons with nearly identical career bulk and power, though Pages is the leader as a 2x qualifier while Walker has been less consistent. Pages has the ability to drag up Abreu’s salary, while Abreu should slot in ahead of Walker. I project a $3.65M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Abreu will be tendered a contract. The current-class comparisons could make for an interesting negotiation in a fast-moving market, and with the Red Sox not going to a hearing in the last six years, this is a good opportunity for Abreu’s representatives and the MLBPA to be ultra-aggressive and potentially move the entire market up. Tender.

ERIK MILLER (3.000): $1,450,000

The Case: Miller enters arbitration with 148.2 career IP, a 3.09 ERA and 43 career SV+HLD, including 51.1 IP with a 2.98 ERA and 19 SV+HLD in the platform year. Greg Weissert (2026, $1.2M proj. salary) and Justin Slaten (2026, $1.15M proj. salary) are the two current-class comps and teammates. Miller should top this group.

Tim Hill (2021, $1.325M salary) entered arbitration with 163 career IP, 48 SV+HLD and a 3.98 ERA while throwing 59.2 IP with 18 SV+HLD and a 3.62 ERA in his platform year. Miller has nearly identical career and platform-year leverage production with a significant ERA advantage, which gets him above Hill.

Matt Brash (2025, $1.55M salary) provides the ceiling after entering with 168.2 career IP, 62 SV+HLD and a 3.31 ERA while posting 25 SV+HLD with a 2.47 ERA in 47.1 platform-year IP. Miller trails Brash in both career and platform-year SV+HLD, keeping him below.

Miller fits cleanly between Hill and Brash and I project a $1.45M total salary.

Tender Decision: Miller will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JUSTIN SLATEN (3.000): $1,150,000

The Case: Slaten enters arbitration with 120.2 career IP, a 3.73 ERA and 41 career SV+HLD, but was limited to 31.1 IP with a 4.60 ERA and 17 SV+HLD in the platform year before ending the season on the IL. Erik Miller (2026, $1.45M proj. salary) and Greg Weissert (2026, $1.2M proj. salary) provide the current-class range. Slaten should fall to the bottom of this group.

John Schreiber (2023, $1.175M salary) is the best lookback comparison after entering arbitration with 143.1 career IP, 43 SV+HLD and a 3.58 ERA while throwing 46.2 IP with 11 SV+HLD and a 3.86 ERA in his platform year. Slaten nearly matches Schreiber’s career SV+HLD production and has a significant platform-year leverage advantage, but Schreiber holds the career and platform-year bulk advantages while also posting much better platform-year quality.

Slaten’s leverage keeps him close, but the missed PY bulk, 4.60 ERA, and injury finish keep him just below Schreiber. I project a $1.15M total salary.

Tender Decision: Slaten will be tendered a contract barring any major medical red flags, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

JAHMAI JONES (2.148): $1,000,000

The Case: Jones enters arbitration with only 168 PY PA’s but did hit 6 HR’s with 16 RBI and a 94 wRC+, over his career he’s only accumulated 455 PA’s but has a solid 102 wRC+ with 14 HR’s and 50 RBI.

Edmundo Sosa (2022, $950K salary) is the best comp for Jones because both are players used almost solely against LHP which explains the low bulk totals rather than injury or poor performance, Sosa entered arbitration with 529 career PA’s, 8 HR’s and 48 RBI. Taylor Trammell (2025, $900K salary) also entered with similar career bulk at 494 PA’s with 18 HR’s and 51 RBI but a worse 81 career wRC+ while also producing less in his PY with 135 PA’s, 3 HR’s and 12 RBI. Jones gets above both due to his career quality advantage and I project him to earn $1M.

Tender Prediction: Jones will be tendered a contract. With how left-handed the Red Sox roster is, I expect them to keep him even though the roster fit is difficult because he does not really have a defensive home and has no options remaining. Tender.