The race at the bottom of the standings has become incredibly tight, but we do have a pretty clear range of where the Braves will land in the MLB draft lottery.

In the best case scenario, the Braves will have the second-best odds at picking #1. At worst, they’ll have the seventh-best odds, depending on how many games they win down the stretch. Currently, the Braves sit with the fourth-best odds at 11.50%.

Current 2026 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

1. Chicago White Sox — 52-88 (25.31%)
2. Minnesota Twins — 62-77 (20.32%)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates — 63-77 (15.34%)
4. Atlanta Braves — 63-77 (11.50%)
5. Oakland Athletics — 64-77 (8.44%)
6. Baltimore Orioles — 64-76 (5.98%)
7. Miami Marlins — 65-75 (4.14%)
8. St. Louis Cardinals — 70-71 (2.15%)

As you can see, the White Sox have all but locked up the best odds to land the #1 pick in the 2026 MLB draft. But after that, there’s a logjam of teams that have played some horrendous baseball, including the Braves. They have the fourth-best odds of picking first right now but are only 0.5 games better than the Twins, who have the second-best odds

The Braves are also only two games worse than the Marlins, who have the seventh-best odds. Crazier things have happened, but it will be pretty difficult for Atlanta to fall any further than that, with the Cardinals being just a game below .500.

Still, having the best odds at landing the top pick is only part of the puzzle. The Braves then need ping pong balls to fall their way.

It’s been a while since we’ve had these type of conversations surrounding Atlanta. This is one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, but on the bright side, next year’s draft is setting up to be a massive one for the organization. The Braves will be picking near the top of the first round, and they have a chance to receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round if Drake Baldwin wins the NL Rookie of the Year award.