Cade Horton Deserves a Lot More Rookie of the Year Attention

He was promoted to the Cubs on May 10 and made his debut against the Mets at Citi Field. In that outing, he entered in the second inning after the Cubs used Brad Keller as an opener. He went four innings, giving up three earned runs and recording five strikeouts.

Horton’s Early Struggles

Horton’s first nine starts did not go as well as some might have hoped. In 45 IP, he posted a 4.80 ERA and a 4.58 FIP. This rough stretch was capped by a blowup outing against Houston, where he gave up seven earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, Horton allowed eight hits, four walks and only struck out two batters.

In that particular game, it could make sense to point to his four walks (and one hit batter on an 0-2 count) to explain why he struggled. A look at some underlying data also tells another story.

Horton struggled to get the Astros to chase out of the strike zone in that outing, and the Astros made contact with an astounding 92.9% of pitches in the strike zone they swung at. To add on, the Astros posted a 43.6% hard-hit rate and hit a lot of balls in the air, so it is no wonder that Horton gave up seven earned runs.

Figuring It Out

After that outing in Houston, something clicked for Horton. In his next outing against Cleveland on Aug. 3, he went seven innings with no runs allowed and five strikeouts. Then, after a sub-par outing against the Twins where he only went 4.2 IP and gave up four earned, he went on to post 28.1 innings of scoreless baseball over his next five starts. 

That stretch was capped with a no-hit bid that he carried into the sixth inning against one of the best lineups in MLB, the Blue Jays.

Excluding his most recent start against the Brewers, which he left early with a blister issue, Horton has pitched to a 1.13 ERA and a 2.79 FIP since his blow-up start in Houston. He’s struck out 34 batters while only walking 13, and he has kept his pitch count low, which is valuable for a rookie who is bearing the heaviest workload so far in his young professional career. 

While his blister issue is concerning, Horton said in a press conference following the game that he thought he would still make his next start. 

Horton’s Case for ROTY Consideration

Part of what makes this recent breakout from Cade Horton so impressive is how desperately the Cubs needed it from him. The Cubs were one of the teams at the deadline that were looking to add a top-of-the-rotation starter. Instead, they added Michael Soroka from the Nationals, and he sustained a shoulder injury in his first start for the Cubs against the Reds on Aug. 4.

On the season, Horton now has a 3.08 ERA and a 3.87 FIP. The Cubs have struggled with pitching depth this year, losing Justin Steele to Tommy John surgery and Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon to the IL for long periods of time.

While Imanaga and Taillon are back, Horton stepping up and pitching well for the Cubs is something that has kept them firmly in the NL Wild Card race – and within reach of catching the Brewers, who have played out of this world for the last two months.

Horton is currently fourth in NL Rookie of the Year odds at +3500 (per BetMGM). He’s behind Drake Baldwin of the Braves, Isaac Collins of the rival Brewers, and Agustín Ramírez of the Marlins.

While keeping his excellent work will be critical for the Cubs as they enter the final stretch of the regular season, could it also help Horton find his way into the NL ROTY conversation by season’s end?

Only time will tell.