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Diamondbacks head coach Torey Lovullo (right) speaks to the media the day with GM Mike Hazen (left) after the team was eliminated from playoff contention at Chase Field in Phoenix on Oct. 1, 2024. Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Can Diamondbacks' Playoff Hopes Survive Amid Bullpen Injuries?

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Jack Sommers | Last updated Jul 8, 2025 12:58 PM ET

The Arizona Diamondbacks have suffered what appears to be an unprecedented level of major pitching injuries in their franchise history. These injuries have been most impactful in the bullpen, leading directly to the sub .500 record of 45-46.

Despite having the third best offense in the league, the D-backs are 4.5 out of the third NL Wild Card spot with four teams in front of them. That's because they have the fifth highest runs allowed in MLB.

The various websites that calculate playoff odds now give the D-backs between a 13% to 21% chance to make the playoffs. That's already a long shot.

While Corbin Burnes going down with Tommy John surgery was a tremendous blow, Ryne Nelson has stepped in to fill that breach and been excellent. In six starts with Nelson filling Burnes' spot, the team is 5-1, and Nelson is personally 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA in 32.1 innings.

But wave after wave of reliever injuries have decimated what was once a promising bullpen, proving too much to overcome, so far. The list in the table below could not be more devastating.

Jack Sommers

It started with Kevin Ginkel and Kendall Graveman opening the year on the IL and being compromised when they came back. Then the crushing injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez happened. Both are lost for this season and most of next, due to elbow surgeries.

Shelby Miller stepped into the breach, and performed spectacularly, posting a 1.98 ERA and recording 10 saves. But he too was just felled this week with a forearm strain.

Ryan Thompson went down last week with a scapular strain. In between all that, promising young pitchers that had been called up to fill in, Cristian Mena and Christian Montes De Oca, also succumbed to season-threatening injuries.

Through April 17 the D-backs had a team 3.48 reliever ERA. That was the last time Puk and Martinez were fully healthy. Despite Miller's heroics, that team bullpen ERA ballooned to 5.45 since April 18.

Year-to-date Arizona has a 5.04 bullpen ERA, which ranks 28th in MLB. Moreover, the timing of the runs given up has been devastating to the team's win-loss record.

They rank dead last in WPA, or Win Percentage Added. This is a metric that measures the leverage of each situation and the impact of the results.

The current bullpen makeup consists of five short relievers and three long or low-leverage relievers. Ginkel, Jalen Beeks (L), Juan Morillo, Kyle Backhus (L) and John Curtiss makeup of the short relievers.

Anthony DeSclafani, Jake Woodford, and Bryce Jarvis are the long, low-leverage relievers. Here are their year-to-date innings and ERA alongside their projected rest-of-season ERA.

Jack Sommers

It's highly unlikely that these eight pitchers will be the same eight by the end of the year, or even by the end of the month.

Sooner or later, either injury or performance will neccessitate additional roster moves. There are no obvious pitchers in Triple-A Reno that would be considered upgrades over the group above.

As the July 31 trade deadline approaches the question then becomes does general manager Mike Hazen have enough confidence in his team to go all in and trade for multiple high-leverage relievers in an attempt to turn things around and make a playoff push.

He has repeatedly stated that he wants to be a buyer, and has resisted calls to sell off his collection of players with expiring contracts at the end of the year. But he also must deal with reality and do the responsible thing if the team can't get closer in the standings.

The number of games left in the season by no means precludes the Diamondbacks from getting on a run, and getting into a good position come September. But the number of games between now and the trade deadline might be too few to get the team into a strong buy position.

The cost to acquire multiple high-leverage relievers would be enormous, potentially gutting an already depleted farm system due to promotions and injuries.

Therefore, if the team cannot get into a much better position in the standings by July 23-30, a task that has so far proven elusive, then it's unlikely Hazen would be that reckless.