Yardbarker
Yardbarker
x
Can Jake McCarthy Continue His Heroics in 2025?
Sep 15, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy (31) at bat in the fifth inning for a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images Allan Henry-Imagn Images

As we continue our look at the individual player projections for the 2025 Arizona Diamondbacks, we come to a player who saw a major bounce-back in the 2024 season in Jake McCarthy.

These projections are a composite of ZiPS and Steamer, prorated to our own playing time projection.

OF Jake McCarthy, 27

Alex D'Agostino / Diamondbacks On SI

The speedy, lefty-hitting McCarthy had struggled with both consistency and injury in 2023. There were questions about whether he was equipped to perform close to his excellent 2022 season.

As it turns out, 2024 was a major step in the right direction. McCarthy posted a .285/.349/.400 slash, and was one of the Diamondbacks' most consistent hitters. He was paramount to Arizona's MLB-leading offense.

If not for a small slump in the latter end of the season he might have maintained an even higher average. But can he do it again? His projections are more modest for 2025, but still beatable if he plays like he did the prior season.

Why McCarthy might outperform projections

McCarthy was simply one of the most successful hitters on the D-backs in 2024. While he maintained high percentages throughout the season, he posted a batting average well above .300 in back-to-back months over July and August.

But it's not as if those months were a totally random surge. McCarthy hit .295 in April, .259 in May, and .286 in June. His season average climbed as high as .313 on August 16.

McCarthy showcased a strong ability to hit to all areas of the field, leg out base hits on poorly struck balls, and even saw a surge in his previously lacking power.

While he only hit eight home runs, he posted a .517 slug in July and .495 in August, thanks to his five triples, four doubles, and five homers in that stretch.

He struck out at a much lower rate, and his expected batting average (.265) wasn't dismally lower than his actual average.

McCarthy proved that he is a viable MLB hitter. Over his 445 plate appearances, he put forward a very solid season at the plate, and his average splits were nearly identical between right- and left-hand pitching, though his slug took a dip against southpaws.

But it's not the first time his numbers have looked like that, as he placed fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2022.

While his hits might not be the strong rips fans are looking for, McCarthy has found a way to take a more wholesale approach and keep the line moving, while creating chaos on the bases.

McCarthy was worth +18 batting run value, +4 baserunning run value, and +6 fielding run value, helped along by his +6 Outs Above Average and 98th percentile sprint speed.

All of that to say, these projections expect a relatively large step back.

While aspects like a projected .267 average might be reasonable, McCarthy has shown his capability to smash those numbers in an extended period of time.

But even if he can't live up to his 2024 self, even half of that overall production would lead to a larger aWAR total than a mere 1.5.

Why McCarthy might underperform these projections

While everything seemed to fall McCarthy's way in 2024, a steep regression to the mean could be in store.

While McCarthy certainly displayed a bit more pop in 2024, his underlying peripherals are somewhat of a concern. While his xBA was respectable, his expected slug was in the 22nd percentile at .359 to his eventual .400.

On top of that, his average exit velocity (84.5), Barrel rate (2.7%), and hard-hit percentage (24.5%) all ranked in the bottom 10% of MLB. The lefty might have found ways to make sure he was getting hits, but many weren't exactly convincing.

His ground ball rate was a high 50.4%, almost no different from when he hit .243 in 2023. But his 2024 BABIP sat 25 points higher than his 2023 total.

With that in mind, a large portion of McCarthy's success in 2025 will likely come down to batted ball luck. If that luck takes a step back from what it was in 2024, McCarthy's results might plummet below what is expected of him.

Summary

Ultimately, McCarthy has been a very valuable player for the D-backs. He accumulated over two aWAR in his 2024 season and could be poised for another excellent year if he maintains his high average.

That average could dip below projections if his contact quality doesn't improve and his luck declines, but his track record of high success at the plate could see him surpass those projections, especially if he's able to add more power and make more solid contact.

Regardless, McCarthy has carved out a deservedly large chunk of playing time, especially considering his consistent success rate against pitchers of both handedness.

McCarthy could easily take the step into stardom with another excellent season, if regression doesn't hit too hard.

Related Content

Arizona Diamondbacks 2025 Player Projections Links Hub


This article first appeared on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads:

Customize Your Newsletter

Yardbarker +

Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!

TODAY'S BEST

Red Sox pitcher sounds off on disgruntled sports bettors
MLB

Red Sox pitcher sounds off on disgruntled sports bettors

Lucas Giolito is tired of hearing from angry sports bettors, and the Boston Red Sox pitcher says he recently spoke with MLB commissioner Rob Manfred about his concerns. During an episode of Rob Bradford's "Baseball Isn't Boring" podcast that was released on Monday, Giolito spoke about what he described as a growing problem with angry gamblers issuing threats to players. The right-hander said he has received countless messages from fans who placed wagers on him and lost, even when he pitches well. "I'm getting messages after every game," Giolito said, via Jon Paul Hoornstra of Newsweek. "Even games where I pitched well, where they're mad at me because I hit the strikeout over instead of being under; prop bets, all these crazy things. People put hundreds of dollars on it. They don't have a lot of money but they're gambling it anyway because it's a disease. They freak out." Giolito added that there is only so much players can do in terms of blocking and reporting people on social media. He said his girlfriend has even received "nasty" messages from fans and that he asked Manfred what would need to happen for MLB to take serious action. "You can go private on social media. You can block accounts. It only goes so far. One thing I said to Rob was, 'Is it gonna take a player getting assaulted in front of their apartment building by some disgruntled that lost a bet for real action to be taken?'" Giolito said. As sports betting has been legalized across more states, the number of fans wagering has rapidly grown. Giolito alluded to prop bets such as over/unders on strikeouts, which are popular among casual gamblers. Giolito certainly is not the first professional athlete to raise concerns about disgruntled bettors. Scottie Scheffler recently revealed a change he had to make because of the actions of those who placed bets on him. As for what Manfred, MLB or any other sports organization can do about it, that remains to be seen.

Hall of Famer believes this AFC QB will win Super Bowl first
NFL

Hall of Famer believes this AFC QB will win Super Bowl first

Pro Football Hall of Famer Warren Moon just made headlines during a recent appearance on "Up Adams," where he gave his take on one of the NFL’s most debated questions. When asked which star quarterback will win a Super Bowl first, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, Moon without any hesitation went with Jackson. “We have Josh Allen, MVP, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, they wrecked the league last year… Which one of those three do you think has the best shot to get one this year?” Kay Adams asked. Moon responded, “I think Lamar.” Moon’s reasoning for this take was not due to stats or accolades, because both have great numbers and awards, rather Moon was focused on the surrounding cast around Jackson. While he was complimentary of Allen and the team around him, he emphasized that the Ravens had a strong secondary, incredible running back and solid wideouts that could allow them to be a serious threat to win it all. It is easy to see why Moon made his opinion clear and without hesitation. Jackson is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, with four Pro Bowl nods, three All-Pro selections and two MVP awards. He is the best dual-threat quarterback in the world, and now with an incredible roster around him, Jackson has become much scarier. However, pressure is mounting on the superstar QB, and Moon did make the case for Allen to also potentially win first. “Josh Allen, they’ll be right there too. I think it depends on who plays who in the playoffs … You have to go through playing both Kansas City and Baltimore if you’re Buffalo, and same thing if you’re the Ravens, you gotta play both of those to get to the Super Bowl … But if you only have to play one of them, that would be great.” Allen is also regarded as one of the league’s best QBs too, and Moon's argument has a lot of merit to it. Both Buffalo and Baltimore are flooded with talented pieces that are hungry to make that Super Bowl run. It could come down to matchups come playoff time. If one squad has an easier route to the AFC Championship game, then it might be the one who ultimately comes out on top. As for Burrow, Moon did not mention him in the conversation, but clearly it was not meant to be a slight on him as a player. Rather, for obvious reasons, it seems that Moon might have Baltimore and Buffalo as overall rosters in a higher tier from Cincinnati. Ultimately however, time will tell who breaks first. But if Moon is correct, Jackson might finally be able to silence his critics, and make his mark on NFL history.

Micah Parsons gives frank comments on lack of long-term deal with Cowboys
NFL

Micah Parsons gives frank comments on lack of long-term deal with Cowboys

Micah Parsons is not holding back on his feelings regarding his lack of a long-term deal with the Dallas Cowboys. One of the best pass-rushers in the league, Parsons is heading into the fifth and final year of his contract with the Cowboys. He'll be an unrestricted free agent in 2026 and, right now, he has no guarantees of a long-term contractual future with the Cowboys. After practice on Tuesday, Parsons gave a frank answer when asked about his lack of a long-term deal. The long and short of it is that he's looked around the NFL and has seen top pass-rushers getting massive contracts. The question is, why hasn't Dallas and owner Jerry Jones put that same type of investment into him just yet? "When you go around the league and you see these other teams taking care of their best guys, I seen T.J. [Watt] gotten taken care of. Maxx [Crosby] got taken care of. Myles [Garrett] got taken care of, [and] he's got two years left on his deal," Parsons said, according to Todd Archer of ESPN. "You see a lot of people around the league taken care of, and you wish you had that same type of energy." Parsons has notched 52.5 sacks over his first four seasons. For comparison's sake, Watt has 58.5 sacks in the same time period and Garrett has notched 60. Watt and Garrett are two of the best pass-rushers in recent memory, and Parsons is right there alongside them. As far as how he sees it, he, of course, believes he's the best in the world at what he does. "I feel like I'm the best at what I do," Parsons said. "You can argue whoever, but stats, numbers don't lie. The consistency is there, and the availability is there." Watt just signed a three-year, $123M contract extension with the Pittsburgh Steelers, while earlier this offseason, the Browns signed Garrett to a four-year, $160M extension with $123.5M of that guaranteed. The Cowboys and Jones have a reputation for being stingy negotiators, and they've taken many of their top players to the limit in the past before signing deals. To that point, Parsons seems to be aware that he's not in a unique situation. "This is not like I'm getting treated differently than anybody else. I don't take it personal. I just don't understand," he said. With that said, Parsons is clearly frustrated about the lack of long-term guarantees of his future in Dallas. So much so that he went as far as to say that if the Cowboys don't want him in Dallas, he's happy to move on and take care of business elsewhere. It's worth noting that Jones hasn't helped ease the tension, either. At the start of training camp on Monday, he went as far as to suggest that even if the Cowboys do sign Parsons, that doesn't mean he'll be available because of injury. Jones said that Parsons was injured for six games last season, while in reality, the star pass-rusher missed only four. "I've been pretty consistent. If they don't want me here, they don't want me here and I'll go about my business. I understand the nature of the business," Parsons said. "Like I said, as far as I'm here and under contract, I'll do what I have to perform at the highest level but at the end this is the business. Same way Jerry Jones, Stephen Jones and the other Jerry Jones take care of their family is the same way I need to take care of my family. I've got three kids of my own, so we all need to take care of our own family at the end of the day."

Is Giants' Joe Schoen already having second thoughts about Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders decision?
NFL

Is Giants' Joe Schoen already having second thoughts about Jaxson Dart, Shedeur Sanders decision?

The New York Giants were routinely linked with quarterback Shedeur Sanders leading up to the 2025 NFL Draft, but the Giants ultimately traded back into the first round to select Ole Miss signal-caller Jaxson Dart at pick No. 25. For a piece published on Monday, Pat Leonard of the New York Daily News revisited how Giants general manager Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll ended up with Dart instead of Sanders earlier this year. "Members of the Giants’ staff had fawned over Shedeur Sanders," Leonard wrote. "Giants brass had spent a lot more time with Sanders during the fall. Then, Daboll’s increased participation after the NFL season steered the process in a different direction." Sanders allegedly had a rough visit with Daboll ahead of the draft, and a report from early May revealed that "Sanders openly acknowledged during the predraft process that he didn't hit it off with Giants coaches." A different story claimed that Schoen "shifted his preference to Dart this spring as head coach Brian Daboll warmed to Dart as a player and person and Schoen rounded out his own evaluation" before the draft got underway. That said, Schoen raised some eyebrows when he said during a May interview that he knew the club would select Dart over Sanders as of "the week of the draft." Schoen also said the decision was the result of a "collaborative process." According to Leonard, those comments were seen by some as "not exactly a firm endorsement of a player standing out above the rest" as it pertains to the quarterbacks. "...Schoen’s lukewarm rhetoric and reluctance to stick his neck out about Dart caught the attention of some people around the league," Leonard added. "And it has put the rookie in a strange position: trying to validate support that almost sounds conditional." Meanwhile, Sanders fell to the draft's fifth round before the Cleveland Browns traded up to grab him at selection No. 144. As of Monday afternoon, FanDuel Sportsbook had Sanders (+870 odds) and Dart (+1060 odds) as significant betting underdogs to serve as Week 1 starters in September. Cleveland is expected to go with Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett for its regular-season opener, while Russell Wilson is on track to start for the Giants against the Washington Commanders on Sept. 7. In short, fans may have to wait a long time to learn if Schoen has any buyer's remorse about possibly being talked into drafting Dart when Sanders was on the board.