Can Paul Skenes sustain this level of dominance?

There is a difference between a hot start and what Paul Skenes has accomplished with the Pittsburgh Pirates over the past two years.

We are not talking about a rookie settling in. We are talking about a pitcher posting numbers that would not be out of place in the middle of a pitcher’s career year. ERAs in the low 2’s or better. WHIPs at 1.00 or below.

Production like that typically comes with a title: Cy Young. Best in the game. Not just, "good start."

And so, the question worth asking is an obvious one. Are Skenes production levels sustainable?

A look at past dominant pitchers

When you put those numbers into context and look at what it took to achieve them before, you can appreciate how rare this is. When Pedro Martinez put together his incredible run in the late 90s and early 2000s, he was not just good. He was playing a different game than anyone else in the league. Martinez’s ERA was below 2.00, at a time when offenses were thriving. Still, the hitters had no answer.

Randy Johnson, too, was an example of utter dominance. Power from start to finish, and a slider that could not be replicated, and seasons with strikeouts in the high-200s. Even then, his ERAs typically hovered in the low 2’s, rather than consistently being well under.

Clayton Kershaw's 2014 season featured a 2.00 ERA. His command was elite, and a WHIP under 1.00. He actually won MVP that year, which is something that is practically unheard of for a pitcher.

Jacob deGrom may be the closest comparison stylistically. Both he and Skenes have power coupled with surgical precision. deGrom made hitters look clueless at times, and when he was at his peak, was hovering around that 1.70-2.00 mark with his ERA.

These are the guys that had truly legendary statistical peaks. Not one of them could maintain this indefinitely.

But Skenes has done it in his first two since arriving at the The Show.

Will Skenes' numbers dip in 2026?

Maintaining an ERA under 2.00 over several years is incredibly difficult. Hitters adjust, scouts figure things out, and the workload becomes taxing. Even the smallest dip in command or velocity, or a slight shift in timing, can bump that ERA into the mid-2s, or slightly higher.

Regression is coming, it always does.

But here is the key. What does regression even mean in Skenes' case? If his ERA jumps to 2.50, and his WHIP goes to 1.10, it is a step down numerically. Technically a step back.

In practice, however, he is still putting up the numbers of an ace. It is still a top of the rotation starter, and still, someone that belongs in the Cy Young conversation. The number difference between 1.90 and 2.60 feels massive on paper, but when it comes to on-field impact, they are both still phenomenal.

The numbers may adjust this season, and they probably will. That is just how baseball works.

But if this is the version of Paul Skenes, we are watching take shape, even a move into the mid 2’s does not change much. He still ends up exactly where every team wants its ace, with the ball in his hand, controlling the game, and leaving the other dugout with more questions than answers.