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Can the Giants sweep the Cubs?
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Can the Giants sweep the Cubs?

Originally posted on Dice City Sports  |  By Tony Reyes  |  Last updated Jun 27, 2024 4:16 PM ET
  • What: MLB Regular Season Game
  • When: Thursday, June 27
  • Who: Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
  • Tip-Off: 3:45 p.m. ET
  • Where: Oracle Park (San Francisco, CA)

Shota Imanaga might be facing the dreaded regression monster. The rookie southpaw, a leading contender for the National League Cy Young Award, recently struggled, allowing 10 earned runs over three innings.

The San Francisco Giants have been excelling against lefties recently and will be starting Jordan Hicks today.

Although regression may eventually catch up to Hicks, he has excelled at keeping the ball on the ground. Conversely, the Chicago Cubs have not performed as well against right-handers lately.

This game is particularly intriguing for sports betting enthusiasts, as it allows for applying detailed team knowledge to make a pick.

Additionally, the game being held at Oracle Park—a venue known for being pitcher-friendly—could influence the betting odds accordingly.

Chicago Cubs

There have been signs that Imanaga’s sub-3.00 ERA might not be sustainable. Despite his impressive control, his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 36th percentile, and his Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph.

While his strikeout rate is well above average, he rarely induces ground balls. The Giants, known for hitting the ball in the air, are a tough matchup for Imanaga.

The New York Mets were on a hot streak when they pounded Imanaga, and he’s now facing the Giants at another difficult time.

The Cubs have a 96 wRC+, a 9.5% walk rate, and a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handers in June. They have five active hitters with an xwOBA above .320 but none above .330. While the Cubs’ lineup is decent against right-handers, no one is scorching.

The Cubs’ bullpen has been unreliable, frequently blowing leads. In June, they have a 4.32 xFIP, a 24.1% strikeout rate, and a 14.1% walk rate. Though they have a few decent middle relievers, they lack strong back-end and lockdown options.

San Francisco Giants

Hicks has a 3.24 ERA but a higher 4.52 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph, and his Hard-Hit Rate is in the 24th percentile. He walks 9.1% of batters but excels with an 86th-percentile ground-ball rate.

The Cubs have the fourth-highest ground-ball rate against right-handers in June, which should play into Hicks’ strengths. Additionally, with San Francisco being a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Hicks is poised for a solid start.

The Giants have been dominating lefties and could continue that trend on Thursday. In June, they have a 150 wRC+ against lefties, with a 12.1% walk rate and a 20.3% strikeout rate.

Furthermore, the Giants have eight hitters with an xwOBA over .310 and seven above .320, making their lineup more complete than the Cubs’. This could mean another challenging outing for Imanaga.

San Francisco’s bullpen has been excellent in June, posting a 3.48 xFIP and a sub-8% walk rate.

Cubs-Giants Best Bet

I believe the Giants have a significant advantage over the Cubs, especially considering their strong relief pitching and ability to capitalize on Shota Imanaga’s recent struggles.

Given these factors, I think the Giants are currently valued at -110 and should probably be favored.

This article first appeared on Dice City Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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