Can the Twins Compete in the AL Central?

Those five players are key factors in this Twins lineup. Two players that are over performing are Matt Wallner and Harrison Bader. Wallner however is on the IL with a hamstring strain. Bader, Buxton, and Wallner are the only regular starters with wRC+ marks over 100 this season.

The Twins offense as a team ranks bottom five in runs, batting average, on base percentage, home runs, and wRC+. They are also bottom five in win probability added (WPA) on FanGraphs.

There is also something else that should be mentioned. Peter brought it up on the Just Baseball show Monday, but this team is paralyzed against lefties. They are hitting .141 with a 36 wRC+. On top of that they are striking out 34.2% of the time. All of those marks are the worst in baseball.

Most MLB teams perform worse against lefties but to be this incompetent is unacceptable. Especially with players like Buxton, Correa, and Ty France who have historically hit lefties well.

At the end of the day, I am not buying these performances from Correa and company. I need to see more before I believe that they are all going to be this bad for the season.

Is Help Coming?

The Twins recently called up Luke Keaschall who is the 42nd ranked prospect at Just Baseball. He is off to a strong start, picking up four hits in his first three games. That includes two doubles, two RBI, and a stolen base.

Right now it looks like Keaschall could be an energy boost inside the dugout. It is a lot to ask of a rookie making his debut but the Twins need him to start a fire under the rest of the team.

Peyton Eeles could be an option on the infield if Edouard Julien continues to struggle. Eeles is currently on the Triple-A injured list but he had a strong 2024 that could see him get a chance once healthy.

Eeles hit .299 with a 141 wRC+ in Triple-A last season. Despite his five foot five inch frame, he also managed eight home runs in 64 games with St. Paul.

One final option would be Carson McCusker. McCusker was signed by the Twins in 2023 after playing Indy ball. In 2024 between Double-A and Triple-A he posted a 128 wRC+. In Triple-A this season he has a 178 wRC+ with five home runs in his first 15 games.

The opposite of Eeles, McCusker’s six foot eight inch frame has allowed him to produce big power since his days at Oklahoma State.

The primary issue with Eeles and McCusker coming up is that neither is on the 40-Man roster.

Pitching Woes

Entering the season, this was projected to be one of the better pitching staffs in baseball. While the pitching has been better than the offense it still hasn’t been great.

The Twins were projected to be a top ten rotation and a top five bullpen. To start the year it has been a top 20 rotation and a top 15 bullpen.

The main storyline amongst the Twins pitching staff as of right now has to be Griffin Jax. He has not been good to start the season. The Twins bullpen has a 3.69 ERA so far this season. If you remove Jax’s eight innings and 10 earned runs that ERA falls to 2.92. That would be the fifth best mark in all of baseball.

Jax has cost the Twins two games so far this season. On April 6 against Houston, Jax entered in the ninth inning with a two run lead. He gave up a two run home run to Yordan Alvarez and the Twins would lose in extra innings.

On April 18 in Atlanta, Jax entered a game that the Twins led four to one. Jax would be charged with four earned runs in an eighth inning that Atlanta scored five runs in. The Twins would lose six to four.

In just nine appearances, Jax has accumulated -0.97 WPA. That is the third worst mark in baseball among relievers.

I believe that Jax will figure this out. The same way Ober and Paddack had some rough starts and righted the ship. The Twins just desperately need him to figure it out sooner rather than later.

Can They Compete?

As stated at the beginning, there are two questions that need to be answered. The first being can the Twins compete in this division? I think that the answer to that question is the same that it has always been, yes.

I still contest that this is the most talented team in the division. When you break down the rosters player by player, the Twins have far and away the most talent.

Now, the more important question with the Twins is will they compete for the division? The answer to that question is much more complicated.

Being less than a month into the season, it is really hard to make that call one way or the other. For what it is worth, the Twins have only fallen to the third best odds to win the division. They are currently +500 on BetMGM.

There was a point last season where the vibes seemed so high in the Twins dugout. They had a rally summer sausage that seemed like it had to be a food code violation but none the less, the vibes were immaculate.

This year I have yet to see that. The closest we have come was a walk-off win against the Mets. I truly thought that could have been the start of things turning around. However, the Twins would get swept by Atlanta in the next series. Just like that things look as bleak as ever.

Peter made an interesting point on the podcast before the season started. He posed a question about the Tigers. Who do you believe they are? Are they the team that had less than a one percent chance of making they playoffs in August? Or are they the team that went on an incredible run to make they playoffs?

The same can be said about the Twins. Their team is not all that different from last years. Is this the Twins team from the first five months of last season? The team that entered September with a 95% chance to make the playoffs? Or are they the team that finished last season looking like one of the worst teams in baseball?

Right now the Twins look like that team that really struggled to finish last year.

We are only 22 games into the season. It is still a little too early to count the Twins out of this division. They need to get something going soon, but I wouldn’t count this team out just yet.