Chicago Cubs 1st baseman has not been living up to the hype

Busch (27) enters his third season in Major League Baseball. The front office set high expectations for him this season, with President of Baseball Ops Jed Hoyer stating that Busch could be a Gold Glover at first base. So far, through 53 games, Busch has shown to be an average player at the plate and a slightly above-average defender over at first.

Overall, Busch is hitting .253/.350/.448 with an OPS and OPS+ of .798 and 127 and adds seven home runs, 11 doubles, and 29 RBIs to his stat line. Busch did get off to a hot start through the Cubs’ first couple of games in March and carried that over into a strong April, hitting .270/.365/.554 for an OPS of .919 in 22 games during the month.

Busch’s strong start didn’t carry over into May, as he hit .234/.330/.390 for an OPS of .720 through 25 games. He also hasn’t shown the ability to hit left-handed pitching, hitting .130 and slugging .174 for an OPS of .433 in 20 games (23 at-bats) against lefties.

Busch’s Baseball Savant page shows that he has been average, with his highest ranking coming with his sweet-spot percentage ranking in the 88th percentile at 40.%. For his defensive metrics, his Savant page has him with a -2 (23rd percentile) for his Range (OAA), but Baseball Reference has a positive 3 for defensive runs saved.

Having such high expectations coming into a pivotal year for the young first baseman could be why Busch isn’t putting up the numbers that he was expected to put up. Having players like PCA, Happ, Tucker, and Suzuki, who are having above-average seasons and hit in front of him, should help Busch do better by getting him into fastball counts and coming up with men on base.

Players waiting in the wings for the Chicago Cubs at first base

The Cubs have some insurance waiting in the wings if Busch isn’t the long-term solution at first base. The Cubs have a few prospects down on the farm who could be possible replacements, with 23-year-old Jonathon Long leading the pack.

Long is the Cubs 13th ranked prospect and does not appear on MLB’s top 100 prospects list. Long is considered an under-the-radar prospect, and he has quietly put up great numbers down at Triple-A.

Overall through 50 games with the Iowa Cubs, Long is hitting .352/.420/.560 for an OPS of .980, and his .352 average is good enough for second in the International League, four points behind the New York Yankees prospect Jesus Rodriguez, who is hitting .356. Long could be a potential option for the Cubs to either call up and use as a platoon with Busch or be possible trade bait, given how well he is doing.

Whatever the rest of the season brings, if Long continues his hot streak at the plate, he will force the Cubs to give him a look at the big league level.