Chicago Cubs: Alex Bregman signing slammed in retrospect

And despite his bat warming up recently—he’s 13-for-39 with 6 RBIs in his last 9 games—the public second guessing continues.

For example, Christopher Kline of Fansided labeled the Cubs’ Bregman signing as an “offseason regret already haunting” the team.

Per Kline:

“With all due respect to Alex Bregman — and he has earned a ton of respect over the years — Chicago’s decision to sign him to a five-year, $175 million contract ahead of his age-32 season was a predictable misstep. Bregman is known as a great teammate and the ultimate winner, but last season in Boston was a mixed bag, to say the least. The signs of imminent decline were there.

…$35 million annually to Bregman feels destined to become a sunk cost. He’s limping out of the gate with a .659 OPS in the heart of the Cubs’ order. Add that next to the relative sunk cost of Dansby Swanson’s contract at shortstop, and Chicago could be locked in to diminishing returns in the infield for the foreseeable future.”

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, meanwhile, sees rapidly diminishing returns from the former Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner.

Per Dierkes:

“Back in January, I felt Davy Andrews of FanGraphs did a nice job articulating the downside risk of signing Bregman through the age of 36. The key passage: ‘He’s not starting out with much margin for error, so things could get ugly when his bat speed or his contact skills start to go. And Bregman is already slow and a below-average baserunner. He already has a weak arm. When the first-step quickness goes, the defense could crater pretty quickly too.’

Baseball player aging does not happen in a nice, linear, predictable fashion. At some point during this contract, Bregman is going to be pretty bad. The Cubs are betting it’ll be the last year or two. It would not be crazy to bet major decline and/or increased missed time due to injury sets in earlier than that.”

Being realistic on multi-year contracts

It’s true that one really can’t expect the same player to be as sharp at 36 as he was at 31 or 32. That’s just being realistic. It’s also realistic, though, that on any long-term deal involving a 30-plus-year-old star, there will be some diminishing returns toward the end of the contract. Any team that wanted Bregman for the here and now would have to accept that fact.

The Cubs believed that they were a championship-level team and they opted to bring in Bregman, on the down side of his prime, to man third base during their window of opportunity. They also brought him in to serve as a cornerstone foundation piece and leader for a team that will likely be without many of its core veteran components next year due to free agency. That’s a role he can play, even well past his prime.

As with any deal, the Bregman signing was a gamble—and more people still do believe that it was the right deal to make for this team.