Chicago Cubs facing a critical Seiya Suzuki dilemma

First, there’s the major factor of money and the team’s allocation of funds and/or prospect capital.

Per Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic:

“The belief is much of Chicago’s investments, either prospect capital or actual money, will go toward pitching. In a weak free-agent class for position players, Suzuki might quickly get priced out of the Cubs’ plans.”

Currently on a 5-year, $85 million contract, it’s sure thing that Suzuki would command a payout considerably higher as the top-of-the-line free agent outfielder in a weak free agent class, alongside Randy Arozarena. Some estimations have him landing a deal in the area of $130-$150 million over 5 years.

After signing 32-year-old third baseman Alex Bregman to a 5-year, $175 million deal this past offseason, the Cubs front office can’t make the excuse that signing a 32-year-old position player to a long-term contract is against their internal free agent policy. Suzuki and his people will also be looking at the Bregman deal as a baseline in setting their own asking price.

While defense may have been a previous knock against Suzuki, he’s been very solid this season and is actually ranking among the team leaders in that area right now.

Per Joey Ricotta of On Tap Sports:

“Suzuki has looked noticeably better defensively, and the numbers support it. He enters mid-August tied with Alex Bregman for second on the Cubs with 11 Defensive Runs Saved and tied with Nico Hoerner for third on the team in Fielding Run Value (7). That’s a great turnaround for a player whose glove was once viewed as a liability.”

Money as the only factor?

So, in terms of player value, there’s no real argument against extending or re-signing the right fielder.

The team has a quality batch of outfield prospects in the system, headed by Josiah Hartshorn, Ethan Conrad, and Kane Kepley—who are currently three of the Cubs’ top 5 prospects overall. But all three are still at the lower levels of the farm system and at least a couple years away from contributing in the majors.

If the Cubs don’t keep Suzuki, it will be entirely about the money and the belief that they can fill that spot internally until their young assets advance. With Happ also possibly leaving, they will have to count on Matt Shaw, Pedro Ramirez, Kevin Alcantara, and whatever veteran stopgap they can pick up on the market to fill their two corner outfield spots.

But the smart move—at least when it comes to fielding a winning team in 2027/2028—would be to bite the bullet and hold on to Suzuki.