Cincinnati Reds Arbitration Projections and Tender Decisions

Once a team comes up with its projected salary for all of its arbitration-eligible players, it will begin a tender analysis to simply determine: “Are we comfortable guaranteeing Player X this much money?”

If the answer is yes, the player will be tendered a contract prior to the mid-November Tender Deadline. Tendering a contract means the team offers the player a contract for the following season while retaining his rights, with the player’s salary either agreed to later or determined through the arbitration process.

If the answer is no, the player will be DFA’d/non-tendered. Once a player is non-tendered, he is removed from the 40-man roster and becomes a free agent immediately.

The other option a team has is to pre-tender a player, which is a contract agreed to before the Tender Deadline that takes the player out of the arbitration process. This is typically done when a team wants to keep a player, but only at a slightly discounted rate, or when it is a very obvious, typically small raise case that teams like to get out of the way.

This article dives into the market analysis of each case, showing the reasoning behind my leaguewide salary projections, before predicting the tender decision for each player.

All opinions in this article are my own, there was no non-public information used in my analysis.

Cincinnati Reds Roster Outlook

40-MAN + 60-DAY IL (NON-FA): 42

PENDING FA + MUTUAL OPTIONS: 5

OPTIONS: Pagan (Player, $10.0M)

R5 PROJECTED ADDITIONS: 3; Cam Collier, Nick Sando, Ty Floyd

NICK LODOLO (5.000): $5,800,000 ($1.075M raise)

The Case: Lodolo spent 74 days on the IL but still made 21 starts and threw 108.2 IP with a 4.97 ERA and 3-6 record.

Cal Quantrill (2023, $1.05M raise) made 19 starts and threw 99.2 IP with a 5.24 ERA and 2-7 record. Lodolo’s slight advantages in starts, innings and ERA get him just above Quantrill. I project a $1.075M raise, bringing him to $5.8M.

Tender Prediction: Lodolo will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

GRAHAM ASHCRAFT (4.130): $2,250,000 ($475k raise)

The Case: Ashcraft spent around 100 days on the IL while still tallying 11 holds.

Jonathan Loáisiga (2022, $612.5k raise) and Mark Leiter Jr. (2024, $550k raise) provide the higher end of the range, with both carrying bulk advantages while posting similar quality by ERA and similar SV+HLD totals in injury-affected seasons.

Tony Cingrani (2017, $475k raise) is the cleaner placement point at the bottom of the group. Ashcraft’s limited bulk from the IL time keeps him from reaching Loáisiga or Leiter, and I project the same $475k raise as Cingrani, bringing Ashcraft to $2.25M.

Tender Prediction: Ashcraft will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

TONY SANTILLAN (4.099): $2,300,000 ($500k raise)

The Case: Santillan ended the season on the IL after pitching to poor quality by ERA and FIP but tallying 11 holds and 5 saves, which inflate his arbitration value despite the bad quality.

Yency Almonte (2023, $400k raise) and Jason Adam (2023, $925k raise) are the two best comparisons in the same Arb-1 salary ballpark who also finished the season on the IL.

Santillan has similar holds to both, has less than half the saves Adam recorded while Almonte had 0 saves, and posted worse quality than both. His raise should be closer to Almonte. I project a $500k raise resulting in a $2.3M total salary.

Tender Prediction: The Reds will likely aim to get a pre-tender deal done with Santillan below his projected arbitration salary, and I expect them to be able to get it done. Pre-Tender.

SPENCER STEER (4.035): $5,600,000 ($1.6M raise)

The Case: Steer ended the season on the IL after missing more than two months, finishing with 384 PA, 16 HR, 54 R, 40 RBI and a 102 wRC+.

Tyler O’Neill (2022, $1.55M raise) provides an extremely clean comparison after missing nearly identical time and finishing with 383 PA, 14 HR, 56 R, 58 RBI and a 98 wRC+. The playing-time bulk and counting stats are remarkably similar, with Steer holding slight advantages in HR and offensive quality while O’Neill produced more RBI. Steer should squeak past O’Neill’s raise, and I project a $1.6M raise resulting in a $5.6M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Steer will be tendered a contract. He feels like a very obvious trade candidate after being rumored at the deadline before landing on the IL. Tender.

JJ BLEDAY (4.013): $4,200,000 ($2.35M raise)

The Case: Bleday entered from a $1.85M salary after his prior deal and incentives and totaled 545 PA with 24 HR, 58 RBI and a 103 wRC+, qualifying despite spending more than a month on optional assignment.

Thairo Estrada (2023, $2.45M raise) provides the best comparison after also producing roughly league-average offensive quality in a similar 530 PA season. Bleday has the power edge, but his broken service-time path, optional assignment and unusual starting-salary circumstances may keep him from fully reaching Estrada’s raise. I project Bleday just below Estrada at a $2.35M raise, bringing him to $4.2M.

Tender Prediction: Bleday will be tendered a contract. He is also a sneaky trade candidate for Cincinnati to cash in on what has already been a great return on investment. Tender.

MATT MCLAIN (3.140): $4,350,000 ($2.05M raise)

The Case: McLain totaled 496 PA with 15 HR, 20 SB and a 67 wRC+ while hitting below .200 and providing up-the-middle defense.

Cedric Mullins (2023, $2.25M raise) provides the ceiling after 15 HR, 19 SB and a 98 wRC+. Luis Rengifo (2023, $2.1M raise) also belongs slightly above McLain after 16 HR and a 115 wRC+. McLain’s speed keeps him close to this group, but the quality gap keeps him below them. I project a $2.05M raise, bringing him to $4.35M.

Tender Prediction: McLain will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender.

BRANDON WILLIAMSON (3.139): $1,250,000

The Case: Williamson enters arbitration with an injury-filled career, totaling 184 career IP with a 4.65 ERA across 38 games and 34 starts, including 52.2 IP in his platform year.

Dinelson Lamet (2019, $1.3M salary) is the closest historical comparison after entering arbitration with 187.1 career IP and a 4.37 ERA, including 73 IP in his platform year.

All three of Williamson, Lamet and current-class comparison Cody Bradford (2026, $1.2M proj. salary) finished their platform seasons healthy, but Lamet’s platform-year bulk advantage should keep him ahead of both current cases. Williamson has the slight career- and platform-bulk advantage over Bradford, which gives him the higher placement of the two. I project Williamson at a $1.25M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Williamson should be tendered a contract. He is also a potential pre-tender candidate if Cincinnati can get a deal done below his projected arbitration salary. Tender.

ANDREW ABBOTT (3.119): $4,285,000

The Case: Abbott enters arbitration with 579.2 career IP across 107 games, all starts, to a 3.76 ERA, although he suffered some regression in his platform year with a 4.61 ERA. Abbott was named an All-Star and finished eighth in Cy Young voting in his PY-1.

George Kirby (2024, $4.3M salary) is about as clean of a comparison as you can find from an awards standpoint, with Kirby also earning an All-Star selection and finishing eighth in Cy Young voting in his PY-1. Kirby entered arbitration with 511.2 career IP across 89 games, all starts, and 51 quality starts to a 3.43 ERA. Kirby did not suffer the same severe regression in his platform year that Abbott did, but Abbott’s significant career bulk advantage with nearly 70 additional innings and 18 more starts should just about make up for the quality gap.

Bryan Woo (2026, $4.4M proj. salary) is the best current-class comparison after also earning an All-Star selection in his PY-1 but finishing higher at fifth in Cy Young voting. Woo enters arbitration with 568.2 career IP across 100 starts and 51 quality starts, 10 more than Abbott.

Abbott has a slight bulk advantage in innings and starts, but Woo’s stronger awards placement and quality-start total push him to the top of the group. Abbott should still stay right next to Kirby because his bulk advantages make up for much of the platform-year quality gap, and I project Abbott just below Kirby at a $4.285M total salary.

Tender Prediction: Abbott will be tendered a contract, and the case should settle without needing to go to a hearing. Tender

ELLY DE LA CRUZ (3.118): $8,510,000

The Case: De La Cruz enters arbitration at a historic level with a whopping 2,458 career PA, considerably higher than anyone else in recent years.

There is really one comparison here: Gunnar Henderson (2025, $8.5M salary). De La Cruz has totaled 90 career HR with a 117 wRC+ while stealing 169 bases, leading to multiple All-Star selections and multiple seasons receiving MVP votes, with another MVP-vote season likely coming in his platform year.

Henderson entered arbitration with 2,124 career PA, 86 HR and a 133 wRC+, while winning a Silver Slugger, Rookie of the Year, making one All-Star team and receiving MVP votes in two seasons.

The Henderson comparison takes a turn when looking at the platform year. Henderson’s platform season was a bit of a regression, hitting 17 HR with a career-low 120 wRC+, while De La Cruz is trending positively after posting his first 30+ HR season, his fourth straight 30+ SB season and a career-high 139 wRC+.

There are older comparisons that suggest De La Cruz does not belong in this range without the same level of major awards, but his massive career-bulk advantage and positive platform-year trendline give him a strong argument against the most recent market-setting case in Henderson.

Boras Corp., which also handled the Henderson case, is not going to accept anything below that number. I project De La Cruz just above Henderson at an $8.51M total salary.

Tender Prediction: De La Cruz will be tendered a contract. The Reds should be very frustrated with Baltimore because the Gunnar Henderson case was one of the bigger arbitration overpays I have seen.

Aaron Judge is the other name at that salary level, and Henderson coming off a 17-HR season with only one career All-Star appearance should have been nowhere near it. But now that Henderson’s $8.5M number is in the market, I do not see a real argument that keeps De La Cruz from getting there.

Cincinnati can point to two-time All-Stars Riley Greene and Kyle Tucker at $5.0M to try to keep De La Cruz closer to that range, but Boras Corp. knows this front office is on the hot seat and is unlikely to want to send its star player to a hearing.

I expect De La Cruz to be tendered and for this case to settle at or around the top of the recent Arb-1 market. Tender.

OSWALDO CABRERA (3.068): $1,225,000 ($25k raise)

The Case: Cabrera received only 25 PA before being DFA’d and later claimed on waivers near the end of the season. There is not enough platform-year contribution to justify any meaningful movement from his $1.2M salary. I project the typical small increase at this level with a $25K raise, bringing Cabrera to $1.225M.

Tender Prediction: The end-of-season waiver claim suggests Cabrera will be a Red in 2027, but I expect it to be on a cheaper pre-tender deal below his projected arbitration salary. Pre-Tender.

DANE MYERS (3.037): $1,700,000

The Case: Myers enters arbitration with 334 PA’s, 8 HR’s, 27 RBI’s, 10 SB and a 102 wRC+ in his platform year, while his career line sits at 845 PA’s, 18 HR’s, 86 RBI’s, 33 SB and an 89 wRC+.

Ernie Clement (2024, $1.97M salary) and Romy Gonzalez (2025, $1.6M salary) provide the best historical range with similar career lines in bulk, power and quality, and Myers shares nearly identical platform-year bulk with Gonzalez while bringing slightly more career bulk. That should allow Myers to slide just above Gonzalez’s salary, while Clement’s 452 platform-year PA’s keep him out of reach, and I project a $1.7M total salary.

Jonny DeLuca (2026, $1.85M proj. salary) is a current-class comparison with carrying very similar platform-year and career bulk along with similar career power. DeLuca should slot ahead with slightly better with wRC+ and speed advantages.

Tender Prediction: Myers will be retained, and I expect the Reds to explore a pre-tender deal at a lower rate than his projected arbitration salary. Tender.